Soviet Military Power 1988 - Soviet Strategic Programs and Space Forces

During the past decade, the Soviets allocated resources equivalent to approximately $400 billion to both strategic offensive and defensive programs in almost equal amounts roughly $20 billion per year for each program. Space programs during this same period approached $80 billion.

Since 1981, Soviet strategic nuclear offensive forces have been upgraded as deployment of a fourth generation of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs)(the SS-17, SS-18, and SS-19) was completed. In 1985, the Soviets introduced the road-mobile SS-25, and in 1987 they began deployment of the rail-mobile SS-24 ICBM. In the Soviet ballistic missile submarine fleet the TYPHOON, carrying 20 SS-N-20 MIRVed (multiple,independently-targetable reentry vehicles) missiles, was introduced, followed closely by the new DELTA IV carrying the even more capable SS-N-23. Soviet long-range bomber capabilities were enhanced by the introduction of the BEAR H carrying the AS-15 nuclear-armed cruise missile. Deployment of the new long-range strategic bomber, the BLACKJACK, is imminent.

In the area of strategic defense, the Soviets are modernizing the ballistic missile defense system around Moscow by replacing 64 old, reloadable above-ground GALOSH launchers with a two-layer defense composed of silo-based, long-range, modified GALOSH interceptor missiles; silo-based GAZELLE high acceleration end atmospheric interceptor missiles; and associated engagement, guidance, and battle management radar systems, including the new PILL BOX phased-array radar near Moscow at Pushkino. This phase of the modernization program should be completed in the late 1980s.

In space developments, the Soviets have orbited their MIR space station, established new endurance records for men in space, flight-tested a subscale model of what appears will become their space plane, and deployed a new medium-lift launcher, the SL-16. In addition, the Soviets launched their heavy-lift SL-X-17, capable of carrying payloads in excess of 100,000 kilograms. The SL-X-17 will also be used to launch the Soviet version of the space shuttle, which the Soviets acknowledge has undergone flight testing under its own power.

These are but a few examples of the trends in Soviet strategic programs. In this chapter, these and other trends, as well as future prospects, are discussed.

STRATEGIC FORCES

Missions and Operations

The Strategic Rocket Forces (SRF) constitute the Soviets' premier military service. Created in 1959 to control all long-range, land-based missiles with a range exceeding 1,000 kilometers, the SRF plays the dominant role in the Soviet strategic forces, controlling over 6,000 of the Soviets' 10,000 strategic warheads.

In a nuclear conflict, SRF missiles would attack:

- Enemy nuclear forces, including silos, missile sites, airfields, naval bases, weapons depots, and nuclear command-and-control facilities;

- Enemy power-projection assets, including military forces, ports, and transportation links; and

- Enemy civilian and military industrial facilities.

Soviet military planners anticipate having to launch their nuclear forces under a variety of circumstances. Thus, they have conducted training and built assets to support the following operations.

Preemption - To achieve the capability to execute this preferred option, the Soviets have emphasized the collection and processing of strategic intelligence concerning their potential enemies' intentions. If convinced that the time for nuclear preemption has come, the Supreme High Command would order a strategic strike. To ensure that the SRF will be ready, the Soviets conduct numerous test missile launches throughout the year, many of them from operational bases.

Launch on warning - The comprehensive Soviet planning for a nuclear war includes preparing their forces to perform their missions under the most adverse conditions. In the event the Soviets fail to execute their preemptive option, they will depend on their early warning networks to provide them with sufficient response time. This network comprises launch detection satellites and over-the-horizon radars that can ascertain the general direction of an attack and provide up to 30 minutes warning. Eleven HEN HOUSE radars located around the USSR, which will be augmented in the mid-199Os by nine new large phased-array radars, can confirm the attack and begin missile tracking. Once notified, the SRF would have to launch its missiles before enemy warheads hit. To ensure that it can do so, the SRF exercises the procedures involved in such a response.

Launch after attack - Should the SRF not launch some or most of its missiles before an enemy attack, the Soviets have made provisions to help them survive the attack and conduct strikes in response. Their silos and launch control facilities, as well as their command, control, and communications links to the Supreme High Command, are hardened and highly survivable.

Command and communications entities also have mobile back-up units. To enhance survivability further, the Soviets have included both rail- and road-mobile missiles in their newest generation of ICBMs. Provisions have been made to refurbish and reload SRF silos, thereby enabling the Soviets to fire additional strategic missiles. These techniques will also be used after both sides' initial strikes during the period of prolonged nuclear conflict envisioned in Soviet doctrine.

ICBM Force Developments

The period 1980 to 1988 witnessed the rapid modernization and sophistication of the Soviet ICBM arsenal. Soviet missiles have been upgraded or replaced with new models of greater accuracy and survivability. After 30 years of sustained growth and improvement, the Soviet Strategic Rocket Forces are extremely capable of conducting global nuclear strikes. Yet improvements to this force continue unabated. By the mid-199Os, the Soviets will be fielding a completely new generation of increasingly accurate missiles, many of them mobile, posing a heightened threat to US strategic forces. The Soviets maintain numerous SS- 11 and SS- 13 third-generation ICBMs. While these missiles are not capable of destroying hardened targets, they are fully capable of destroying unhardened targets.

The centerpiece of the current Soviet SRF arsenal is the SS-18 heavy ICBM, designed to destroy hardened targets such as ICBM silos and command facilities. This missile, larger than the US PEACEKEEPER, has been modernized over the last seven years. The majority of the current force consists of SS-18 Mod 4s, which carry 10 MlRVed warheads. The SS-18 force alone could destroy 65 to 80 percent of all US ICBM silos using two warheads per target, and still have 1,000 warheads remaining. The total SS-18 force has about 3,000 warheads.

The Soviets have also modernized their other two fourth-generation ICBMs, the SS-17 and SS-19. The SS- 19 Mod 3 carries six MIRVed warheads and is roughly comparable in size to the US PEACEKEEPER. The SS-17 Mod 3, while less accurate than the SS-18, carries four warheads and can destroy any unhardened targets. Both the SS- 17 and SS- 19 are capable of flexible targeting: they can hit Eurasian as well as transoceanic targets with a total of about 2,700 warheads, thereby facilitating the Soviet Union's ability to adjust to the situation created by the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty.

The Soviets have invested enormous effort and resources in increasing the survivability of their strategic systems against nuclear attack. To make their fourth generation missiles survivable, for instance, the Soviets placed them in rebuilt, very hard silos. Of the Soviet inventory of 1,400 operational ballistic missile silos, 818 have been rebuilt since 1972. Fully one-half of these silos have been totally reconstructed and hardened since 1980.

The Soviets have begun operating fifth-generation ICBMs, missiles with great throwweight and accuracy. They use solid-fuel propellants (which provide longer life and require less maintenance), and are fully mobile, and hence highly survivable. The SS-24, currently in the initial stages of deployment, is comparable in size to the US PEACEKEEPER. It carries 10 warheads and is designed for both rail and silo deployment. The SS-25 is a road-mobile, single-warhead, three-stage system. It can fire from field deployment sites or through the sliding roof garage it occupies at its base. The missile's mobility makes it inherently survivable and capable of reload/refire operations. The SS-25 joined operational Soviet SRF regiments in 1985.

By the 1990s, assuming the continuation of the current modernization tempo, the Soviets will be in a position to field over 15,000 warheads. Additionally, these weapons would be placed on newer, more capable and survivable strategic delivery systems during the next decade. It is likely that by the mid-199Os, the Soviets will have completely phased out their third-generation missiles, while the fourth-generation will be undergoing replacement by systems currently in development and testing. The SS-18 Follow-On, a more accurate version than its predecessor, has been tested recently; preparations for deployment of this missile are already underway. In October 1987, the US protested the apparent Soviet intention to test the SS-18 Follow-On in such a manner as to have its reentry vehicles land in the Pacific extremely close to the major populated islands of Hawaii. Mobile, solid-fueled SS-24s and SS-25s will be fully operational and will themselves be replaced by follow-on systems in the next decade. These advances will ensure that the Soviet ICBM force will remain the world's largest and most modern strategic missile force.

Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missile Force Developments

The Soviet Navy operates the world's largest strategic missile submarine force. Although it includes some older submarines, the majority of the nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) force consists of more modern DELTA I, II, and III submarines armed with intercontinental-range missiles that can reach North America from Soviet ports and coastal waters.

Within the last seven years, the Soviets have introduced the TYPHOON and the DELTA IV, both equipped with more accurate, longer range MIRVed intercontinental missiles. The introduction of these systems has enabled the Soviets to increase their SLBM weapons delivery capabilities by nearly 30 percent without increasing the overall size of their SSBN force. At the same time, submarine survivability was being significantly enhanced.



Based in the Pacific Ocean and Northern Fleet areas, the Soviet ballistic missile submarine force is equipped with over 3,000 warheads on submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs). In wartime, a portion of these forces is expected to serve as a survivable nuclear reserve. In the last decade, the deployment of multiple warhead SLBMs with ranges sufficient to reach the United States from waters near the USSR has allowed the Soviets to plan to operate the majority of their SSBNs in protected "bastions," or havens, near the Soviet Union. Mixed groups of naval air, surface, and submarine assets, along with fixed sensors and minefields, will operate in wartime to protect these SSBN bastion areas against US/NATO antisubmarine forces.

Additionally, within the last several years the Soviet Navy has increased greatly its interest in the Arctic as an area of military operations, particularly for its SSBNs. The Soviets think that SSBN operations in the Arctic ice zone could increase submarine survivability, based on their belief that operations under and near the Arctic ice pack might provide their deployed SSBNs with greater security and protection than in more exposed waters.

To ensure that they can communicate with their SSBN/SLBM assets, the Soviets have recently improved their submarine command, control, and communications (C3) systems by deploying an extremely low frequency (ELF) communications system. Newly deployed BEAR J aircraft offer an additional means of effective SSBN communication redundancy by providing very low frequency (VLF) communication transmissions to SSBNs on patrol.

The Soviets may begin at-sea flight testing of a modified version of the SS-N-20 missile sometime this year. A modified version of the SS-N-23 missile will probably complete testing in 1988. Improved accuracy of the Soviets' latest SLBM systems, as well as possible efforts to increase SLBM reentry vehicle size and warhead yield, would confirm Moscow's plans to develop a hard-target-kill capability for its SLBM force. The new missile support ship class, the ALEXANDER BRYKIN, is designed to reload SSBNs with these modern missiles. This capability will allow Soviet SSBNs to hold additional targets at risk.

Soviet Strategic Aviation Developments

The Soviet intercontinental bomber force has historically lagged behind the SRF and navy in systems development. Recent Soviet efforts in strategic aviation, however, particularly with the BEAR H and BLACKJACK long-range bombers, signal heightened interest in a manned-bomber attack force to diversify the character of their strategic forces.

The BLACKJACK is the world's largest and heaviest bomber. Designed to carry bombs and air-launched cruise missiles (ALCMs), the BLACKJACK can cruise subsonically over long ranges, perform high-altitude supersonic dash, and attack utilizing low-altitude, high subsonic penetration maneuvers. As with the B-l, the BLACKJACK has a blended wing-body design with a variable-sweep wing and a single vertical stabilizer. It has an unrefueled combat radius of about 7,300 kilometers and a maximum speed of Mach 2.0. Eleven BLACKJACK bombers have been produced, and the first BLACKJACK regiment should begin forming this year. The backbone of the modern Soviet intercontinental bomber force of the 1980s, however, will remain the BEAR H, armed with the AS-15/KENT ALCM. The Soviets also have in their inventory about 100 other BEAR bombers and air-to-surface missile carriers. The BEAR was first produced in the late 1950s, but some of these aircraft have been updated in subsequent years with new technology.

Soviet strategic aviation capabilities are enhanced through training and exercises. BEAR H bombers are regularly observed simulating attacks against North America. When operational, the BLACKJACK can be expected to engage in similar operations. Additionally, older BEAR bombers carrying the AS-3 air-to-surface missile (ASM) are being rejuvenated through a modification program that upgrades them to carry the newer AS-4 supersonic ASM. More than 45 of these reconfigured aircraft, designated BEAR Gs, are now operational.

The current Soviet intercontinental bomber force is more flexible and survivable than it has ever been. Prior to the recent introduction of longer range cruise missiles, Soviet bombers would have had to penetrate Canadian or US airspace to launch their attacks. Now the BEAR H can launch its long-range AS-15 cruise missiles from well offshore and still hit targets in North America. The BLACKJACK will be able to conduct both standoff and penetration attacks using a variety of nuclear missiles and bombs.

Until recently, the Soviets had only aging BISON tankers for aerial refueling support of BISON and BEAR aircraft. In 1987, the first unit of new MIDAS tankers entered operational service. While the BISON tankers remain in service, they are expected to be replaced as sufficient numbers of MIDAS tankers become available.

Cruise Missile Developments

The Soviets are on the verge of deploying a variety of sophisticated cruise missile systems. At sea, the Soviets have tested the SS-N-21 sea-launched cruise missile (SLCM). A variety of Soviet general purpose attack submarines such as VICTORs, AKULAs, or SIERRAs could carry and launch the SS-N-21. Additionally, a YANKEE-Class nuclear submarine has been converted to carry SS-N-21 missiles. Targets in either Eurasian or North American theaters could be attacked by these accurate missiles, which are fitted with nuclear warheads. The larger SS-NX-24 missile, which could be carried from specialized submarine platforms such as a modified YANKEE, is expected to be operational in the next few years.

The Soviets have deployed an air-launched long range cruise missile the AS-15/KENT with their intercontinental-range BEAR H force. Armed with this standoff weapon, the BEARs pose a much greater threat to Eurasian and US targets. Work on a new bomber-launched cruise missile is underway.

The Soviets had developed and were preparing to deploy a ground-launched cruise missile (GLCM)the SSC-X-4 which is a version of the SS-N-21/AS-15 system. A GLCM-variant of the larger SS-NX-24 was also a possibility as a theater strike weapon. Both GLCM systems are banned by the INF Treaty.

INTERMEDIATE-RANGE NUCLEAR FORCES

In addition to ICBMs, the SRF is responsible for intermediate-range (IRBM) and medium-range (MRBM)ballistic missiles the latter two being longer range intermediate-range nuclear forces. The INF Treaty will eliminate these Soviet systems. Until the treaty enters into force and the missiles are destroyed as required over a three-year period, INF systems, such as the SS-20, will continue to pose a threat to Eurasian targets.

The last seven years have seen the full expansion and deployment of the Soviet SS-20 IRBM force, from approximately 250 SS-20s in 1980 to a high of 441. The less capable SS-4 MRBM force has been reduced in size during this period, and now numbers approximately 50 missile launchers.

The SS-20 is a remarkably capable IRBM system which first became operational in 1977. The missile carries three highly accurate MIRVed warheads and can deliver them out to a range of about 5,000 kilometers. It has a reliable solid-fuel propellant system and is fully mobile, making countertargeting efforts extremely difficult. It can fire either from sliding-roof garages at regimental bases or from field-deployed sites. The Soviets have the capability to reload and refire SS-20s. The older SS-4 system is still maintained at the theater level. This liquid-fueled system is located at soft launching sites. The missile can deliver one warhead out to a range of 2,000 kilometers.

These missile forces can be augmented or replaced by a variety of other nuclear delivery systems. The Soviets retain 12 older GOLF II diesel-powered ballistic missile submarines, six of which are assigned to the Baltic Fleet. Each GOLF can deliver three SS-N-5 missiles on Eurasian targets. Additionally, Soviet aviation assets, particularly the BACKFIRE and FENCER, can conduct theater nuclear operations.

The role of Soviet INF missiles will likely be redistributed to other systems in light of the recent INF Treaty. The treaty requires the destruction without replacement of all existing missiles and launchers over a three-year period, including the SS-20, SS-4, and SS-5 ballistic missiles, as well as the SSC-X-4 cruise missile, which was tested but not deployed. After the agreement takes effect, however, the Soviets maybe able to turn to other strategic ballistic missiles (ICBMs and SLBMs), aircraft, and perhaps sea-launched cruise missiles to fulfill their strategic theater requirements in Eurasia.

SHORT-RANGE NUCLEAR FORCES

The Soviet military also deploys a wide variety of nuclear delivery systems with a range less than 1,000 kilometers. These include shorter range intermediate-range nuclear forces (SRINF) missiles, which are covered by the INF Treaty. Specifically, the SCALEBOARD and SS-23/SPIDER will be eliminated within 18 months after the treaty enters into force. The INF Treaty does not cover short-range nuclear missiles with a range less than 500 kilometers, dual-capable aircraft, and artillery pieces. Thus, while the INF Treaty eliminates the most threatening Soviet nuclear systems, the Soviets will retain a more than adequate capability to provide tactical nuclear support for their ground forces.

The SRINF systems eliminated by the INF Treaty had posed new challenges to NATO during the 1980s. At the theater- and front-level, the older SCALEBOARD had been replaced by a modernized version. The modification significantly improved the missile's accuracy while maintaining its 900-kilometer range. Until 1983, the SCALEBOARD had not been deployed outside the USSR. In 1984, one brigade was deployed in Czechoslovakia, and two brigades were deployed in East Germany. SCALEBOARD units are also located in the western Soviet Union, and in the Central Asian and the Far Eastern USSR. Over 100 SCALEBOARD missiles remain in the inventory.

At the front- and army-levels, the SS-23/SPIDER was designed as the successor to the 1960's vintage SCUD. Over 75 are now in the inventory. With improvements in accuracy, responsiveness, and range, the SS-23 poses a greater threat to time-critical targets such as NATO nuclear missile units, airfields, and air defense sites. The SPIDER has been deployed since 1985 in several locations within the USSR and was recently introduced into East Germany. Over 600 SCUD missiles, however, remain deployed. Although SCALEBOARDs, SPIDERs, and SCUDs could be deployed with chemical or conventional high-explosive warheads, their principal role is to serve as the ground force's primary nuclear fire support means.

The Soviet military also operates tactical nuclear missile and artillery systems deployed at front level. At the division-level, nuclear fire support is provided by 660 free-rocket-over-ground (FROG) missiles, deployed in battalions of four launchers (one in each division). In 1981, the SS-21, a guided missile (providing improvement in both range and accuracy), began replacing the FROG in forward-deployed divisions, and 140 are now deployed. Division-level SS-21 battalions are being consolidated into brigades in Soviet armies in East Germany.

Soviet nuclear-capable artillery and mortars underwent qualitative improvements in the 1980s, with the replacement of older, towed-artillery pieces with self propelled (SP) versions. These SP weapons, including the 152-mm howitzer 2S3, the 152-mm gun 2S5, the 203-mm gun 2S7, and the 240-mm 2S4 mortar, enable the Soviets to provide more responsive nuclear support for their ground maneuver units.

STRATEGIC DEFENSES

In a dramatic departure from past assertions that only the United States is working to "militarize" space, General Secretary Gorbachev acknowledged on 30 November 1987 that the USSR is involved in strategic defense research. He stated, "The Soviet Union is doing all that the United States is doing, and I guess we are engaged in research, basic research, which relates to these aspects which are covered by the SDI of the United States." But the Soviet effort into all aspects of strategic defense has been consistently far more vigorous than that of the United States.

Ballistic Missile Defense

The Soviets maintain the world's only operational ABM system, and a nearly completed construction program begun during the 1980s will yield an expanded and upgraded system comprising a two-layer defense of 100 launchers. When fully operational around 1989, the system will defend selected leadership and strategic facilities in the Moscow area.

The new Moscow ABM system includes two interceptor missiles: a long-range modified GALOSH ABM that is intended to engage ballistic missile reentry vehicles(RVs) outside the atmosphere; and the GAZELLE, a shorter range, high-acceleration missile that, like the now-defunct US SPRINT system, is designed to engage RVs after they have reentered the Earth's atmosphere. New, hardened silos have been constructed for the new interceptor missiles. The modified GALOSH and GAZELLE are expected to become operational in 1988 or 1989.

A large multifunction phased-array radar nearing completion at Pushkino is also an integral part of the new Moscow ABM system. The radar, which has 360-degree coverage, will provide support for the new interceptor systems. It is expected to reach full operational capability around 1989.

In the aggregate, the Soviet Union's ABM and ABM related actions suggest that the USSR may be preparing an ABM defense of its national territory. These actions include radar construction, concurrent testing, SAM upgrade, ABM rapid reload, ABM mobility, and deployment of ABM components to Gomel.

The Soviets began building a large phased-array radar (LPAR) network in the 1970s, and since 1981 the number of LPARs under construction has more than doubled. There are now nine LPARs in varying stages of completion, forming a nearly complete ring of ballistic missile detection coverage for the Soviet landmass. They duplicate and augment coverage provided by the older HEN HOUSE ballistic missile early warning radars, but also could provide the detailed detection and tracking data which would be required for a nationwide ABM system. Since these radars take a long time to construct, the entire network probably would not be operational until the mid-199Os.

The Soviets have deployed and tested components required for an ABM system that could be deployed to a site in months rather than years. Recent Soviet activities with respect to moving a FLAT TWIN ABM radar and a PAWN SHOP van, both components of an ABM system, from a test range and initiating deployment at a location outside an ABM deployment area or ABM test range, constitute a violation of the ABM Treaty. Moreover, the SA-10/SAM system already in the air defense forces may have the potential to intercept some types of ballistic missiles, as may the SA-X-12B/GIANT when it is deployed.

One of the principal concerns regarding Soviet noncompliance with the ABM Treaty is the Krasnoyarsk radar, which is in clear violation of the treaty. The only permitted functions for an LPAR with Krasnoyarsk's location and orientation would be space-tracking and National Technical Means (NTM) of verification. Conclusive evidence suggests, however, that this radar is primarily designed for ballistic missile detection and tracking, not for space-tracking and NTM as the Soviets claim. Moreover, the coverage of the Krasnoyarsk radar closes a major gap in the coverage of the Soviet ballistic missile detection, warning, and tracking screen. The location of the Krasnoyarsk radar allows it to provide warning of a ballistic missile attack, to acquire attack characterization data that will enable the Soviet strategic forces to respond in a timely manner, and to aid in the battle management of Soviet strategic defensive forces. All LPARs, including the Krasnoyarsk radar, have the inherent capability to track large numbers of objects accurately. Thus, they not only could perform as ballistic missile detection, warning, and tracking radars, but also have an inherent technical potential, depending on location and orientation, of contributing to ABM battle management. A US Congressional delegation visited the Krasnoyarsk LPAR facility on 5 September 1987 and was allowed to view selected areas of both the transmitter and receiver facilities. No information derived from this visit, however, changed the assessment that the radar is designed for ballistic missile detection and tracking.

Advanced Strategic Defense Technologies

Since the 1960s, the Soviets have been conducting a substantial research program to develop a defense against ballistic missiles. As noted by General Secretary Gorbachev, this effort covers many of the same technologies currently being explored by the US SDI. The Soviet effort, however, involves a much greater investment of plant space, capital, and manpower.

For example, the Soviet laser research program, with ballistic missile defense applicability, has historically been much larger than its US counterpart. At Sary Shagan, one of a half-dozen major R&D facilities involved in laser research, the Soviets are believed to be developing several lasers for strategic applications such as air defense or a terminal ABM, and at least one laser believed capable of an antisatellite mission.

Moscow hopes that its huge investment to design and build high-energy lasers will provide it with laser systems for strategic air defense, space-based antisatellite missions and, conceivably, defense against ballistic missiles. The first prototype systems, some with limited operational capability, might be seen before the end of the decade, but except for air defense, full-scale, fully operational defensive systems are not expected until the late 1990s at the earliest.

In some areas of ballistic missile defense-related technology, the USSR has progressed beyond technology research. It has ground-based lasers with some capability to attack US satellites, and it could have a space-based antisatellite laser prototype within the next several years. The Soviets also could have ground-based laser prototypes for ballistic missile defense in the early 1990s, and they could begin testing a limited-scale deployment system in the late 1990s.

Moscow is exploring several other advanced technologies for use in ballistic missile defense. Since the late 1960s, for instance, the Soviets have explored the use of particle beam and kinetic energy weapons for antisatellite (ASAT) and ballistic missile defense missions. Although the Soviets may be able to test a prototype particle beam ASAT weapon in the mid-to-late 1990's, operational systems that could destroy satellites or incoming ballistic missiles will not exist until the 21st century.

Long-range, space-based kinetic energy weapons for defense against ballistic missiles probably could not be developed until at least the mid-199Os. The Soviets could, however, deploy a short-range, space-based system for space station defense or close-in attack by a maneuvering satellite in the near future.

The USSR has also conducted research in the use of radio-frequency weapons to interfere with or destroy the electronic components of ballistic missile warheads or satellites. A ground-based version of such a weapon could be tested in the 1990s. Free-electron lasers, which generate intense microwave and millimeter-wave pulses, have been developed by the Soviets, possibly for use in radio-frequency weapons.

Passive Defense

The Soviet passive defense program is a comprehensive system of measures designed to inhibit the effects of a nuclear attack on the Soviet Union. The main objectives of the passive defense program in effect today are: ensuring the survival and continuity of the Soviet leadership; planning for efficient wartime mobilization of manpower and the economy; protecting the industrial base and essential workers; and providing a credible reconstitution capability. Integral to the Soviet passive defense program are thousands of hardened facilities.

Deep Underground Facilities

For 40 years, the Soviet Union has had a vast program underway to ensure the survival of the leadership in the event of nuclear war. This multifaceted program has involved the construction of deep underground bunkers, tunnels, secret subway lines, and other facilities beneath Moscow, other major Soviet cities, and the sites of major military commands. This program is designed solely to protect the senior Soviet leadership from the effects of nuclear war. These deep underground facilities today are, in some cases, hundreds of meters deep and can accommodate thousands of people. As nuclear arsenals on both sides have become larger and more potent, these facilities have been expanded and have reached greater depths.

Neither changes in the Soviets' leadership nor the restructuring of the strategic balance and the refinements in military doctrine that accompanied these changes appear to have diminished their commitment to the program. Over the program's history, its purpose has remained unchanged leadership survival so that it can maintain internal control and ensure that Soviet military power can be centrally directed throughout all phases of a world war. The secrecy of the program and the uncertainty about the extent and nature of these facilities are major causes for concern.

The deep underground program, which rivals Soviet offensive strategic weapons programs both in scale and level of commitment, remained undiminished even as the Soviets agreed to limit their defenses against ballistic missiles in the ABM Treaty. Indeed, a major augmentation of the original activities was started about the time the ABM Treaty was being concluded. Yet another round of construction on these complexes began in the early 1980s, when Soviet leaders were publicly emphasizing that a nuclear war would be so catastrophic that attempts to achieve victory or even seriously limit damage in such a war no longer made sense. The latest round of construction coincided with intensified Soviet preparations for the possibility that a nuclear war could be protracted.

The deep underground facilities beneath the city of Moscow are directly associated with the main centers of state power. They provide the leaders of the various organs of state control the opportunity to move from their peacetime offices through concealed entry ways down to protective quarters below the city, in some cases,hundreds of meters down. Once there, the Politburo, the Central Committee, the Ministry of Defense, the KGB, and the apparatuses of the many other state ministries can remain sheltered while the USSR converts to a wartime posture. The fruits of this 40-year construction program now offer the Soviet wartime leadership the option of remaining beneath Moscow or, at some point, boarding secret subway lines connecting these deep underground facilities. From there the Soviets can make their way to nearby underground complexes outside Moscow where they plan to survive nuclear strikes and to direct the war effort. The support infrastructure for these facilities is substantial. A highly redundant communications system, consisting of both on-site and remote elements, supports these complexes and permits the leadership to send orders and receive reports through the wartime management structure.

These installations also have highly effective life support systems capable of protecting their occupants against chemical and biological attack. Such arrangements may enable independent operations to be carried out from these facilities for many months. The top leadership of the USSR also has the option of going by secret subway lines out to Vnukovo Airfield, about 17 miles southwest of the Kremlin, and from there flying to remote facilities. They also have a fleet of aircraft, trains, and other vehicles that provide yet another option for survival; these platforms have extensive communications support, which would permit the surviving leadership to reconstitute Soviet military power for ensuing military operations. While Soviet preparations for leadership protection are most intensive around Moscow because of its critical role in wartime management, there are similar programs in other key cities. Moreover, Soviet planning calls for the leadership's evacuation from several hundred additional cities to rural relocation facilities.

The Soviets also use worked-out mines to increase the number of relocation facilities. These old mines have the added advantage of reducing the cost of the passive defense program since the excavation costs have already been recovered. The mines would also provide concealed storage sites for military stores and equipment, expanded storage capacity for the strategic stocks reserve network, and improved continuity of economic activity in wartime. By using these old mines,the Soviets can expand the already large number of underground facilities available for leadership protection quickly and inexpensively.

The Soviets' experience with civil defense, leadership protection, and massive relocation efforts during World War II has taught them the benefits of a leadership protection program. While continuing improvements indicate the program does not yet fully meet Soviet requirements, the Soviets have made extensive preparations to give the leadership the potential for effective performance in a nuclear war. The enormous and continuing Soviet investments in the leadership protection program indicate that they believe its benefits are well worth the large cost. Unceasing efforts in strategic offensive forces and active defensive forces modernization, when coupled with efforts to protect the leadership, clearly indicate that the USSR expects to exercise national command and control through all phases of protracted nuclear war.

SPACE FORCES

The continuing evolution of Soviet military space doctrine, the increasing number of military-related launches, and the high priority given to development of space-related strategic offensive and defensive systems reflect the Soviet determination to use space primarily for military purposes. The long-term Soviet commitment to space was reaffirmed by General Secretary Gorbachev in May 1987 when he declared, "We do not intend to relax our efforts and lose our vanguard position in the conquest of space."

Space Programs and Capabilities

The Soviets currently operate about 50 types of space systems for military and civilian uses, including manned space stations (MIR and the inactive SALYUT 7), and reconnaissance, launch-detection, navigational, meteorological, and communications satellites. Some types of satellites - the Soviet space station, the materials processing satellite, the radar ocean reconnaissance satellite (RORSAT), the electronic intelligence(ELINT) ocean reconnaissance satellite (EORSAT), and the radar-carrying oceanographic satellite are unique to the Soviets.

The USSR conducts approximately 100 space launches annually from its three "cosmodromes." One of these, Tyuratam, is the world's largest. To maintain their impressive launch rate, the Soviets have about 20 launch pads and use eight operational types of boosters to launch their payloads. A ninth booster, the SL-X-17, is in development and testing. Their high launch rate allows the Soviets to maintain an increasing number of active satellites in orbit up from about 120 in 1982 to about 150 in 1987. At least 90 percent of the Soviet satellites in orbit have military purpose and can support offensive or defensive operations.

Although the Soviets steadfastly maintain they have no military space program, about 150 of the approximately 200 operational Soviet satellites projected to be in orbit by the mid-199Os will most likely have purely military missions such as ocean reconnaissance and targeting, electronic intelligence, imagery reconnaissance, and communications. Another 40 will probably support joint military-civilian functions, including communications, navigation, and weather data. The approximately 10 remaining satellites are likely to conduct interplanetary probes and other scientific missions. The lifetimes and survivability of Soviet satellites are expected to increase during the next 10 years because of more sophisticated technology and the placement of satellites at higher altitudes.

Military Support From Space

The Soviets continue developing and deploying space systems designed to support military operations on Earth. They now have a fully operational network dedicated to warning them of an ICBM attack, and they operate several types of space-based reconnaissance systems. Two of these, the RORSAT and EORSAT, can be used to locate naval forces. Moreover, the Soviets practice their detection and targeting techniques, routinely launching these satellites to monitor both their own and NATO naval exercises.

Moscow continues to expand its sophisticated satellite reconnaissance program. Several planned improvements such as a data-relay satellite system could improve the timeliness of Soviet intelligence. Demonstrations of flexibility and versatility in launching and deploying surveillance systems have continued, and the Soviets are capable of redirecting them for worldwide missions as required. Meanwhile, their satellite imagery reconnaissance capability has been refined, and space-based electronic intelligence is being upgraded.

While the Soviets are expected to maintain their current launch-detection satellite network, they are probably working on a space-based surveillance system to detect the launch of US SLBMs, as well as European and Chinese missile launches. Although the USSR's land-based ballistic missile defense radar network permits detection of in flight SLBMs, a space-based geosynchronous launch-detection satellite system could increase warning time significantly. The Soviets will probably have the technical capability to deploy such a satellite system within the next several yearn

The Soviets continue deploying their space-based global navigation satellite system known as GLONASS. This system will probably provide highly accurate positioning data for military and civilian users by 1992. GLONASS is similar to the US NAVSTAR Global Positioning System (GPS). In fact, the Soviets used digital signal-processing data from GPS documents to develop GLONASS. GLONASS is being placed in a GPS-like orbit. Based on the 9 to 12 satellites announced for the system, GLONASS would have a worldwide, two-dimensional navigation capability. If the Soviets want GLONASS to provide worldwide, three-dimensional navigation upgrades, they would have to orbit 18 to 24 satellites.

The Soviets have continued developing and deploying radar-carrying satellite systems. Designed for mapping ice formations in polar regions, these satellites can greatly enhance the Soviet Navy's ability to operate in icebound areas by facilitating navigation of northern sea routes and assisting in such activities as routing naval ships from construction yards in the western USSR to new ports in the Pacific.

In July 1987, the Soviets orbited a very large, new type satellite using their PROTON booster rocket. According to the Soviets, COSMOS-1870 has an Earth-resources, remote-sensing mission, which reportedly includes experiments related to hydrology, cartography, geology, agriculture, and the environment. It uses an on board radar unit to gather data. Since no scientific data attributed to this spacecraft has even been discussed or publicly acknowledged to date, a strong military affiliation cannot be ruled out.

Manned Operations

The Soviet manned space program occupies a unique position in Moscow's space efforts. It is heavily publicized to promote the perception of the peaceful nature and technological superiority of the USSR's space program. Nonetheless, the Soviets have made a strong commitment to using their manned space program to accelerate their drive to achieve military superiority in space. For the Soviets, having a man in space provides unique observation, experimentation, execution,and command functions which the US frequently uses remote systems to perform.

Soviet literature indicates that the military applications of remote sensing, oceanography, meteorology, and geodesy have been the focus of repeated cosmonaut investigations. Even civil investigations such as astronomical observations, also performed by cosmonauts, have military uses. The USSR may be using such investigations to develop techniques useful for maintaining the orientation of certain equipment to an accuracy of a few arc-seconds, a capability needed to aim directed energy weapons.

The ability to rendezvous and link up with uncooperative spacecraft, which Soviet cosmonauts demonstrated in 1985 and 1986, also has military applications. Cosmonauts use equipment such as a laser range finder, a night-vision device, and an optical sensor while performing this type of operation. The Soviets state that this rendezvous procedure will allow the rescue of cosmonauts stranded in orbit, but it could also be useful both for repairing friendly satellites and for inspecting and disabling enemy satellites.

A crucial cosmonaut activity is Earth observation, which has applications for reconnaissance and targeting. The Soviets report that their cosmonauts have used visual observations, cameras, spectrometers, and multispectral electro-optical sensors in their observations from the SALYUT and MIR space stations. These experiments suggest the Soviets are evaluating their ability to locate, identify, and track targets from outer space. Developing this ability could be the first step toward designing a space weapons platform for use against targets in space and on Earth. Such a platform may eventually be used for ASAT and ballistic missile defense operations, as well as for space station defense.

In 1986, the USSR launched a new-generation space station MIR to replace the aging SALYUT-7. MIR is an impressive advancement over SALYUT-7, having enhanced solar energy and electrical power systems, greater computer capabilities, and individual"cabins" for crew members. Most significantly, while SALYUT-7 had only two docking ports, MIR has six.

With the launch of MIR, a space station module, and regular crew rotations with the SOYUZ-TM capsule, the Soviets have probably begun their permanent manned presence in space. The crew launched in February had a partial crew change in July 1987, and the remaining cosmonaut, Colonel Yuri Romanenko, was relieved in December 1987 after setting two space endurance records. In the early-to-mid 1990s, the Soviets should be able to construct a very large modular space station. They have discussed housing up to 100 cosmonauts in such a space complex.

Antisatellite Operations

In addition to space programs which could be construed as having both military and civilian applications, the Soviets have space systems that are purely military in nature. Indicative of the Soviet military program for space is their development and maintenance of the world's only currently operational ASAT system, a ground-based orbital interceptor. Using a radar sensor and a pellet-type warhead, the interceptor can attack all current low-altitude satellites. A target engagement during the first orbit of the intercept leaves little time for a target satellite to take evasive action. The interceptor can reach targets orbiting at an altitude of more than 5,000 kilometers, but it is probably intended for high-priority satellites at lower altitudes.

The ASAT interceptor is launched from Tyuratamon on SL-11 launch vehicles. Two launch pads, storage space for many interceptors, and the launch vehicles are available at the Tyuratam facility. Several interceptors could be launched each day from each of the pads.

Given the complexity of launch, target tracking, and radar-guided intercept, the Soviet ASAT system is far from primitive. Soviet ASAT tests have been largely successful, providing them with an operational system fully capable of performing its mission. Although the Soviets have not launched their ASAT system in several years, in an effort to forestall US development of an ASAT weapon, they have maintained their ASAT readiness. Over the past several years,the Soviets have routinely launched the SL-11 ASAT booster with other payloads, thereby ensuring the reliability of this system component. Other components can be tested on the ground without actually having to launch the ASAT system itself. The nuclear-armed GALOSH ABM also has an inherent ASAT capability against low-altitude satellites. The Soviet Union also has ground-based lasers with some capability to irradiate US satellites.

New Space Launch Systems

The Soviet space program's success is due largely to its versatile and reliable inventory of space launch vehicles (SLVs) and its space launch and support facilities. The Soviets send a satellite aloft every three or four days, using one of eight types of operational SLVs. The USSR's impressive ability to launch various spacecraft quickly gives the Soviets a distinct operational military advantage in any crisis. Most malfunctioning satellites could be rapidly replaced, and additional satellites could be launched to cover new or expanding areas in a crisis. In fact, if all deployed Soviet satellites were destroyed, the Soviets have sufficient standby lift capability to replace them within two to three months, provided reserve satellites were available.

Even with their current launch capability, the Sovietsare expanding their extensive family of SLVs with new expendable launch vehicles and reusable manned spacecraft. The deployment of the medium-lift Titan IIIC-Class SL-16 and the heavy-lift Saturn V-Class SL-X-17 will increase the payload weight of satellites the Soviets will be able to orbit.

On 15 May 1987, the Soviets conducted the first flight test of the SL-X-17, which they designated "Energiya"(Energy). They openly announced that "military experts took part in creating and testing" the new launch vehicle. The Soviets reported that "Energiya's" first stage (the strap-on boosters) and the second stage (the core vehicle) operated as planned. They also stated that an attempt was made to orbit a satellite during this test. The satellite mockup engines apparently did not function properly and the satellite splashed down in the Pacific Ocean. The failure of the payload, however, was not due to problems with the booster, which performed as intended.

The SL-X-17 heavy-lift vehicle will be used to launch the Soviet space shuttle orbiter as one of its payloads. Launch-pad compatibility testing of an orbiter attached to the SL-X-17 vehicle may already have taken place, and it appears that a test flight will occur soon. By using US propulsion, computer, materials, and airframe technology and designs, the Soviets were able to produce an orbiter years earlier, and at far less cost, than if they had depended solely on their own technology and engineering.

Development of a heavy-lift launch system with its main engines on the core vehicle rather than the orbiter gives the system the versatility to launch either an orbiter or other very heavy payloads. The SL-X17, for example, will be able to place payloads of over 100,000 kilograms into low-Earth orbit, a figure comparable to that carried by the discontinued US Saturn V rocket. Potential payloads for the SL-X-17 include modules for a large space station, components for manned and unmanned interplanetary missions, and perhaps directed-energy ASAT and ballistic missile defense weapons and other space-based components of the Soviet strategic defense program.

The SL-16 booster is capable of placing a payload of more than 15,000 kilograms into low-Earth orbit. This capability filled a gap in the Soviet SLV inventory by providing an economical means of launching medium weight payloads. One candidate payload for the SL-16 could be a space plane, a subscale version of which has been flight-tested in orbit; a full-scale test version is possibly in production. A small, manned spacecraft could be used for quick-reaction, real-time reconnaissance missions, satellite repairs and maintenance, crew transport, space station defense, satellite inspection and, if necessary, satellite destruction.

The introduction of the SL-16 and SL-X-17, coupled with an expected greater use of the SL-12 and SL-13SLVs, will increase substantially the payloads the Soviets will be capable of launching into space. In fact, during the next five years, the Soviets are expected to double the annual payload weight launched into orbit, and quadruple that weight within 15 years.

PROSPECTS

While the INF Treaty marks an important step in reducing the threat of nuclear war, the residual Soviet nuclear arsenal will still contain some 1,400 ICBMs, nearly 1,000 SLBMs, and a large number of cruise missiles, short-range ballistic missiles, and tactical missile and artillery systems.

Even if a strategic arms reduction treaty is concluded and ratified, the Soviets can be expected to continue to improve their strategic nuclear weapons, especially for accuracy, mobility, and survivability. Their short-range ballistic missile force, which is expected to grow steadily, will remain a potentially devastating strike force. Continued Soviet development of a new class of cruise missiles with greater accuracy than currently deployed ballistic missiles will enhance the deep-strike capability of theater bombers and increase bomber survivability by providing a standoff capability. Furthermore, the Soviets show no sign of abandoning any aspect of their strategic defense program, despite its approximate $20 billion per year cost.

Research and development trends suggest that the Soviets fully intend to use space for both offensive and defensive purposes. If current trends continue, space will become the fastest growing industry in both the military and civil sectors, although all available evidence suggests that military requirements drive the Soviet space program.

Sources : dia

Missile Agency Seeks Funds for Defensive Systems

WASHINGTON, Feb. 15, 2011 – A ground-based system for homeland defense and interceptors for regional defense highlight the Missile Defense Agency’s portion of the Defense Department’s fiscal 2012 budget request.

The agency requested more than $8.6 billion for fiscal 2012, compared to last year’s requested $8.4 billion, Navy Rear Adm. Randall M. Hendrickson, the agency’s deputy director, told Pentagon reporters yesterday via video teleconference from Colorado Springs, Colo.

“The 2012 budget is predicated on and assumes the eventual approval of [fiscal] 2011's requested levels of $8.41 billion," he said.

If approved, the $8.6 billion budget would be used to pay for completing the initial fielding of the Ground-Based Midcourse Defense System for homeland defense, in addition to enhancing regional defenses with at least two interceptor systems against short-, medium- and intermediate-range ballistic missiles, Hendrickson said.

Homeland security projects include completing the purchase of six ground-based interceptors and the purchase of five more, as well as finishing 14 missile-launching silos at Fort Greeley, Alaska, and starting work on a new East Coast communications terminal, the admiral said.

Regional defense plans include purchasing 68 Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense interceptors, six launchers and a tactical station group. The plan calls for purchasing 46 standard sea-based interceptors, among other projects.

The third phase, Robust Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile Defense, is expected to be completed in 2018. System improvements would include expanded shooter coordination and improved radar, Hendrickson said.

The fourth phase, Early Intercept and Regional Intercontinental Ballistic Missile Defense, is scheduled to be completed in 2020.

The projects to complete the third and fourth phases include completing the preliminary design for the Precision Tracking Space System satellite, and finishing the final designs and engineering models for its spacecraft bus, optical payload and communication payload components.

Sources : militaryavenue

Soviet Military Power 1986 - Nuclear Force Operations

The Soviet Union has pressed ahead with the development and deployment of new generations of increasingly capable land, sea, and air forces for nuclear attack. Modernization of the fourth generation of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) is essentially complete. In clear violation of the SALT II Treaty, deployment of a fifth-generation ICBM, the SS-25, has begun, and its deployment has been undertaken in a manner that violates SALT I. This highly survivable weapon system represents the world's first operationally deployed road-mobile ICBM. Development continues apace on the SS-X-24, which could be deployed in a rail-mobile version this year.

The Soviets' strategic nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) force remains the largest in the world. Construction continues on several new TYPHOON-Class SSBNs. The SS-NX-23, the USSR's most capable long-range submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM), is nearing operational status. It is deployed on the DELTA IV and probably will be deployed on DELTA III SSBNs.

The USSR currently has three manned intercontinental-capable bombers in development and production - the BEAR H, the BLACKJACK, and the BACKFIRE. Newly built BEAR H bombers are the first launch platform for the long-range AS-15 air-launched cruise missile (ALCM).

Projections for the years ahead are:

- Additional TYPHOON-Class submarines, BLACKJACK and BEAR H bombers,and SS-X-24 ICBMs, all carrying many more warheads than the systems they are replacing, will be deployed.

- By 1990, if the Soviets continue to maintain over 2,500 missile launchers and heavy bombers and even if they are within the quantitative sublimits of SALT II, the number of deployed warheads will grow to over 12,000.

- Although the Soviets would not necessarily expand their intercontinental attack forces beyond some 12,000 to 13,000 warheads, they clearly have the capability to do so. Based on recent trends, even under SALT, the Soviets could deploy over 15,000 warheads, or by violating SALT, over 20,000 warheads by the mid-199Os.

The modernization and upgrading of these strategic forces have been paralleled by growth and increased capabilities of the Soviets' longer range intermediate-range nuclear force (LRINF) and short-range ballistic missile (SRBM) systems deployed with Soviet combat forces. Significant improvements in nuclear capable aircraft as well as increases in tactical missiles and nuclear artillery have also occurred.
Nuclear Doctrine and Strategy

Soviet leaders since the 1960s have followed a consistent and relentless policy for the development of forces for nuclear attack. The Soviet leadership recognizes the catastrophic consequences of a general nuclear war. However, Soviet military forces have taken actions and exhibited behavior which indicate that they believe a nuclear war could be fought and won at levels below general nuclear war. The grand strategy of the USSR is to attain its objectives, if possible, by means short of war by exploiting the coercive leverage inherent in superior forces, particularly nuclear forces, to instill fear, to erode the West's collective security arrangements, and to support subversion. Thus, the primary role of Soviet military power is to provide the essential underpinning for the step-by-step extension of Soviet influence and control.

In any nuclear war, Soviet strategy would be to destroy enemy nuclear forces before launch or in flight to their targets, to reconstitute the war base should nuclear weapons reach the Soviet homeland, and to support and sustain combined arms combat in different theaters of military operations. Several overarching strategic wartime missions are:

- to eliminate enemy nuclear-capable forces and related command, control, and communications capabilities;

- to seize and occupy vital areas on the Eurasian landmass; and

- to defend the Soviet state against attack.

These missions would involve:

- disruption and destruction of the enemy's essential command, control, and communications capabilities;

- destruction or neutralization of enemy nuclear forces on the ground or at sea before they could be launched; and

- protection of the Soviet leadership and cadres, military forces, and military and economic assets necessary to sustain the war.

Strategic and theater forces and programs in place or under active development designed to accomplish these objectives include:

- hard-target-capable ICBMs, new submarine-launched ballistic missiles, LRINF ballistic missiles, and land- and sea-based cruise missiles;

- short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs)and free rocket over ground (FROG) systems deployed with combat troops;

- bombers and ALCMs designed to penetrate US and allied defensive systems;

- large numbers of land attack and antiship cruise missiles on various platforms; antisubmarine warfare (ASW) forces to attack Western nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines;

- air and missile defenses, including early warning satellites and radars, interceptor aircraft, surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), antiballistic missile (ABM) radars and interceptors, and some antiaircraft artillery;

- antisatellite weapons;

- passive defense forces, including civil defense forces and countermeasures troops and equipment devoted to confusing incoming aircraft; and

- hardened facilities numbering in the thousands, command vehicles, and evacuation plans designed to protect Party, military, governmental and industrial staffs, essential workers, and to the extent possible the general population.

Supporting a land war in Eurasia and eliminating the US capacity to fight and support a conflict would require the capability to employ theater and strategic forces over a variety of ranges and the destruction of:

- military-associated command and control facilities and other assets;

- war-supporting industries, arsenals, and major military facilities;

- ports and airfields in the United States and along air and sea routes to European and Asian theaters of war; and

- satellite surveillance sensors, ground-based surveillance sensors, and related communications facilities.

Soviet nuclear forces are designed and personnel are trained to fulfill their missions under all circumstances. Soviet leaders appear to believe that nuclear war might last weeks or even months and have factored this possibility into their force planning. Despite public rhetoric alleging their commitment to no first-use of nuclear weapons, the Soviets have developed extensive plans either to preempt a nuclear attack or to launch a massive first strike.

The key to a successful preemptive attack would be effective coordination of the strike and accurate intelligence on enemy intentions. Meeting these demands in war requires reliable command, control, and communications under all conditions.

A launch-under-attack circumstance would place great stress on attack warning systems and launch coordination. To meet the demands of a launch-under-attack contingency, the Soviets have established an elaborate warning system. Satellite, over-the-horizon radar, and early warning systems have been built to provide the Soviet Union with the capability to assess accurately and respond effectively to any nuclear attack. These warning systems could give the Soviets time to launch their nuclear forces very quickly.


Follow-on strikes would require the survival of the command, control, and communications systems as well as the weapons themselves. The Soviets have invested heavily in providing this survivability. The SS-17, SS-18, and SS-19 ICBMs are housed in the world's hardest operational silos. The Soviets are building silos for the new ABM interceptors around Moscow. To increase its survivability, the SS-20 LRINF missile is mobile. The mobile SS-26 ICBM is being deployed; the development of the mobile SS-X-24 continues; and a mobile surface-to-air missile, the SA-X-12, with some capabilities against certain types of ballistic missiles, is almost operational. The launch-control facilities for offensive missiles are housed in very hard silos or on off-road vehicles. Communications are redundant and hardened against both blast and electro-magnetic pulse damage. Higher commands have multiple mobile alternate command posts available for their use, including land vehicles, trains, aircraft, and ships. Bombers are assigned dispersal airfields. Ballistic missile submarines could be hidden in caves, submerged in deep fjords just off their piers, or dispersed while being protected by Soviet surface and submarine forces.

The belief that a nuclear war might be protracted has led to the USSR's emphasis on nuclear weapon system survivability and sustainability. For their ICBM, LRINF, SRBM, SLBM, and air defense forces, the Soviets have stocked extra missiles, propellants, and warheads throughout the USSR. Some ICBM silo launchers could be reloaded, and provisions have been made for the decontamination of those launchers. Plans for the survival of necessary equipment and personnel have been developed and practiced. Resupply systems are available to reload SSBNs in protected waters.
Soviet Intercontinental Attack Forces
Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles

The operational Soviet ICBM force consists of some 1,400 silo and mobile launchers, aside from those at test sites. Some 818 of the silo launchers have been rebuilt since 1972; nearly half of these silos have been refurbished since 1979. All 818 silos have been hardened against attack by currently operational US ICBMs. These silos contain the SS-17 Mod 3 (160 silos), the SS-18 Mod 4 (308), and the SS-19 Mod 3(360), which were the world's most modern deployed ICBMs until the more modern, mobile SS-26 was deployed.

Each SS-18 and SS-19 ICBM can carry more and larger MIRVs than the Minuteman III, the most modern deployed US ICBM. The SS-18 Mod 4 carries at least ten MIRVs, and the SS-19 Mod 3 carries six, whereas the Minuteman III carries only three. The SS-18 Mod 4 was specifically designed to attack and destroy ICBMs and other hardened targets in the US. The SS-18 Mod 4 force currently deployed has the capability to destroy about 66 to 80 percent of US ICBM silos, using two nuclear warheads against each. Even after this type of attack, over 1,000 SS-18 warheads would be available for further attacks against targets in the US. The SS-19 Mod 3 ICBM, while not identical to the SS-18 in accuracy, has similar capabilities. It could be assigned similar missions and could be used against targets in Eurasia. Although the SS-17 is somewhat less capable than the SS-19, it has similar targeting flexibility.

The remaining Soviet ICBM silos are fitted primarily with the SS-11 Mod 2/3s and SS-18 Mod 2s. These ICBMs of older vintage are housed in less-survivable silos and are considerably less capable. Nevertheless, their destructive potential against softer area targets in the United States and Eurasia is significant in terms of many of the Soviet requirements outlined earlier.

The most recent development in the Soviets' operational ICBM force occurred with the deployment of their road-mobile SS-26 missile, in violation of SALT I and SALT II. The SS-26 is approximately the same size as the US Minuteman ICBM. It carries a single reentry vehicle and is being deployed in a road-mobile configuration similar to that of the SS-20. As such, it will be highly survivable with an inherent refire capability. Several bases for the SS-26 are operational, with a total of over 70 launchers deployed. They consist of launcher garages equipped with sliding roofs and several support buildings to house the requisite mobile support equipment.

Within the past year, the Soviets have begun dismantling SS-11 silos in compensation for SS-26 deployments. The Soviets are expected to continue to dismantle SS-11 silos. By the mid 1990s, all SS-11s will probably be deactivated.

Deployment programs for all of the currently operational silo-based Soviet ICBMs are essentially complete. The command, control, and communications system that supports the Soviet ICBM force is modern and highly survivable, and the reliability of the ICBMs themselves is regularly tested by live firings from operational complexes.

Some silo-based ICBMs in the current force that the Soviets decide not to replace with modified or new ICBMs will, in accord with past practice, be refurbished to increase their useful lifetime and reliability. During this process some system modifications also could be made.

Force Developments. Soviet research and development on ICBMs is a dynamic process involving many programs. A modernized version or a new replacement for the liquid-propelled SS-18 is likely to be produced and deployed in existing silos through the end of the century.

The Soviets appear to be planning on new solid-propellant ICBMs to meet many future mission requirements, including a counterforce capability. The Soviets already have two new solid-propellant ICBMs - the small, mobile SS-25 described above, now being deployed, and the SS-X-24. The medium-size SS-X-24 is well along in its flight test program. The SS-X-24 deployment in a rail-mobile mode could begin as early as late 1986. Silo-based deployment could occur later. Early preparations for the deployment of the SS-X-24 are already underway.

Activity at the Soviet ICBM test ranges indicates that two additional new ICBMs are underdevelopment. A new ICBM to replace the SS-18 is nearing the flight test stage of development. Additionally, a solid-propellant missile that may be larger than the SS-X-24 will begin flight-testing in the next few years. Both of these missiles are likely to have better accuracy and greater throwweight potential than their predecessors. A third possible development is that a MIRVed version of the SS-25 will be developed later this decade. Such a development would further expand the already large warhead inventory possessed by the Soviets. By the mid-199Os, the Soviet ICBM force will have been almost entirely replaced with new systems, a number of which may violate SALT II constraints.
Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missiles

The Soviets maintain the world's largest ballistic missile submarine force. As of early 1986, the force numbered 62 modern SSBNs carrying 944 SALT-accountable nuclear-tipped missiles. Neither total includes the older 13 older GOLF II SSBs with 39 missiles which are currently assigned theater missions. The GOLF III SSB and HOTEL III SSBN are only SALT-accountable for their missile tubes. Twenty SSBNs are fitted with 336 MIRVed submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs). These twenty units have been built and deployed within the past nine years. Two-thirds of the ballistic missile submarines are fitted with long-range SLBMs, enabling them to patrol in waters close to the Soviet Union. This affords protection from NATO antisubmarine warfare operations. Moreover, the long-range missiles allow the Soviets to fire from home ports and still strike targets in the United States.

Four units of the modern Soviet ballistic missile submarine, the TYPHOON, have already been built. Each TYPHOON carries 20 SS-N-20 solid-propellant MIRVed SLBMs. The TYPHOON is the world's largest submarine with a displacement a third greater than that of the US Ohio-Class. It can operate under the Arctic Ocean icecap, adding further to the protection afforded by the 8,300-kilometer range of its SS-N-20 SLBMs. Three or four additional TYPHOONs are probably now under construction, and by the early 1990s the Soviets could have as many as eight of these potent weapons systems in their operational force.

In accordance with the SALT I Interim Agreement, the Soviets have, since 1978, removed 14 YANKEE I units from service as ballistic missile submarines. These units had to be removed as newer submarines were produced in order for the overall Soviet SSBN force to stay within the 62 modern SSBN/950 SLBM limits established in 1972. These YANKEEs, however, have not been scrapped. Some have been reconfigured as attack or long-range cruise missile submarines.

Force Developments. The Soviets have launched three units-two of which are currently accountable under SALT - of a new class of SSBN, the DELTA IV, which will be fitted with the SS-NX-23 SLBM, now being flight tested. This large, liquid-propelled SLBM will have greater throwweight, carry more warheads, and be more accurate than the SS-N-18 which is currently carried on the DELTA III SSBN. The SS-NX-23 is likely to be deployed on DELTA IIIs as a replacement for the SS-N-18.

The Soviets probably will begin flight-testing a modified version of the SS-N-20. Additionally, based on past Soviet practice, they probably will develop a modified version of the SS-NX-23 before the end of the decade. Both modified versions of the SS-N-20 and SS-NX-23 are likely to be more accurate than their predecessors and eventually may provide the Soviets with a hard-target capability for SLBMs.

To ensure communications reliability, the Soviets are expected to deploy an extremely low frequency (ELF) communications system that will enable them to contact SSBNs under most operating conditions.
Strategic Aviation

The five air armies subordinate to the Supreme High Command (VGK) which contain the Soviet strategic bombers and strike aircraft are:

- Smolensk Air Army;

- Legnica Air Army;

- Venitza Air Army;

- Irkutsk Air Army; and

- Moscow Air Army.

The assets of the air armies include some 180 BEAR and BISON bombers, 145 BACKFIRE bombers, 397 medium-range BLINDER and BADGER bombers, and 450 shorter range FENCER strike aircraft. The Soviets have allocated these aircraft among five air armies to cover specific theaters of military operations (Europe, Asia, and the United States) and yet retain the flexibility to reallocate aircraft as necessary during wartime. This flexibility allows the Soviets to alter the use of their strategic air assets as circumstances require. Soviet Naval Aviation assets include some 125 BACKFIRE and 230 BLINDER and BADGER bombers. Air army BEAR and BISON bombers also could be made available for maritime missions. In addition, the air armies and Soviet Naval Aviation have a total of some 530 tanker, reconnaissance, and electronic warfare aircraft.

The Soviets are in the process of upgrading their long-range bomber force. The new BEAR H bomber, which carries the AS-15 long range cruise missile, became operational in 1984. About 40 of these aircraft are now in the inventory. BEAR H bombers have been observed in training flights simulating attacks against the North American continent.

The BEAR H is the first new production of a strike version of the BEAR airframe in over 15 years. Additionally, the Soviets are reconfiguring older BEAR aircraft, which carry the subsonic AS-3 air-to-surface missile (ASM), to carry the newer supersonic AS-4. Several of these reconfigurations, known as BEAR Gs, are operational.

The Soviets have been producing the BACKFIRE, their most modern operational bomber, at a rate of about 30 per year. Several modifications have been made to the aircraft and further modifications are likely to upgrade performance. The BACKFIRE can perform a variety of missions including nuclear strike, conventional attack, antiship strikes, and reconnaissance. Its low-altitude capabilities make it a formidable platform for high speed military operations. Additionally, the BACKFIRE can be equipped with a probe to permit in-flight refueling to increase its range. This would improve its capabilities against the contiguous United States.

The Soviets have assigned some FENCER strike aircraft to the air armies. The FENCER is a supersonic, variable-geometry-wing, all weather fighter-bomber that has been in operation since 1974. Four variants have been produced, the most recent introduced in 1983. The FENCER is still in production, and the number assigned to air armies is likely to increase over the next few years.

Force Developments. The BLACKJACK, a new long-range bomber larger than the US B-1B, is still undergoing flight-testing. The BLACKJACK will be faster than the US B-1B and may have about the same combat radius. The new bomber will be capable of carrying cruise missiles, bombs, or a combination of both and could be operational as early as 1988. It probably will be used first to replace the much less capable BEAR A bomber and then the BEAR G bomber.

For several years the Soviet Union has been developing the MIDAS, an aerial-refueling tanker version of the Il-76/CANDID aircraft. When deployed in the near future, the new tanker can be used to support tactical and strategic operations and will expand significantly the ability of the Soviets to conduct longer range missions.
Long-Range Cruise Missiles
The AS-15, a small, air-launched, subsonic, low-altitude cruise missile, became operational in 1984. It is similar in design to the US Tomahawk and has a range of about 3,000 kilometers. It is currently deployed with the BEAR H and is expected to be carried on the BLACKJACK when that aircraft becomes operational. The BEAR H and eventually the BLACKJACK, in combination with the nuclear-armed AS-15, will significantly increase Soviet capabilities for strategic intercontinental air operations.

The Soviets have a sea-launched version and a ground-launched version of the AS-15 under development. The sea-launched variant,the SS-NX-21, is small enough to be fired from standard Soviet torpedo tubes. Possible launch platforms for the SS-NX-21 include three VICTOR classes of nuclear-powered attack submarines (SSNs); the reconfigured YANKEE-Class SSN; and the new AKULA-, MIKE-, and SIERRA-Class SSNs. The SS-NX-21 is expected to become operational soon and could be deployed on submarines off US and allied coasts.

The ground-launched cruise missile variant, the SSC-X-4, will probably become operational this year. Its mission will be to support operations in the Eurasian theater since the Soviets are unlikely to deploy it outside the USSR and its range is too short for intercontinental strikes. The SSC-X-4 is being developed as a mobile system and probably will follow operational procedures similar to the SS-20 LRINF system.

In addition to these variants of the AS-15, a larger cruise missile is under development. This missile, designated the SS-NX-24, will be flight-tested from a specially converted YANKEE-Class nuclear-powered cruise missile attack submarine (SSGN). It could become operational by 1987. A ground-based version of this missile may be developed.

All of these cruise missiles probably will be equipped with nuclear warheads when first deployed and will be capable of attacking hardened targets. These systems could be accurate enough to permit the use of conventional warheads, depending on munitions developments and the types of guidance systems incorporated in their designs. With such warheads and guidance, cruise missiles would pose a significant non-nuclear threat to US and Eurasian airfields and nuclear weapons.
US Strategic Nuclear Forces

In measuring and evaluating the continuing improvements being made by the USSR's strategic forces, it is useful to bear in mind the status of US forces, the modernization of which is discussed in Chapter VIII. By mid-1986, US strategic deterrent forces will include:

- 1,000 Minuteman ICBMs;

- 17 Titan ICBMs (the Titan force will be retired by the end of 1987);

- 240 B-52G/H model bombers plus about aircraft undergoing maintenance and modification;

- 56 FB-111 bombers plus some 5 aircraft undergoing maintenance and modification;

- 17 B-1B bombers;

- 480 Poseidon (C-3 and C-4) fleet ballistic missile launchers; and

- 168 Trident fleet ballistic missile launchers.

The historic and continuing objective of US nuclear forces is deterrence of nuclear and major conventional aggression against the United States and its allies. This policy has preserved peace for a quarter-century and, in sharp contrast to the Soviet priority accorded nuclear warfighting, is based on the conviction, widely held in the US, that there could be no winners in a nuclear conflict. The United States does not now have a first-strike policy, nor do we plan to acquire a first-strike capability in the future. Rather, US deterrence policy seeks to maintain the situation in which any potential aggressor sees little to gain and much to lose by initiating hostilities against the UnitedStates or its allies. In turn, the maintenance of peace through deterrence provides the vital opportunity to pursue the US goal of eliminating nuclear weapons from the arsenals of all states.

Realizing these deterrence objectives requires the development, deployment, and maintenance of strategic forces whose size and characteristics clearly indicate to an opponent that his politico-military objectives cannot be achieved either through the employment of nuclear weapons or through political coercion based on nuclear advantages.
Soviet Non-Strategic Nuclear Forces
Longer Range Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces

The Soviets began a vigorous effort to modernize and expand their intermediate-range nuclear force in 1977 with the deployment of the first SS-20 LRINF missiles. Each SS-20 is equipped with three MIRVs, more than doubling the number of LRINF warheads that existed in 1977 when the SS-20 was first deployed. The SS-20s also have significantly greater range and accuracy and a much shorter reaction time than the missiles they are replacing.

The Soviets have deployed 441 SS-20 launchers at bases west of the Urals and in the Soviet Far East. During 1984, the Soviets began construction of more new bases for the SS-20 than in any other year. Some of this construction was to facilitate the units that had been displaced by their former bases. (These bases are being converted to accommodate the SS-25 mobile ICBM) In spite of some conversions, real growth was observed in the SS-20 force in 1985.

The mobility of the SS-20 system, unlike the SS-4, allows it to operate under both on- and off-road conditions. Consequently, the survivability of the SS-20 is greatly enhanced because of the difficulty in detecting and targeting this system when it is field deployed. Further, the SS-20 launcher can be reloaded and refired, and the Soviets stockpile refire missiles.


In addition to the SS-20s, the Soviets still maintain approximately 112 SS-4 LRINF missiles, all of which are located in the western USSR opposite European NATO.

Future Force Development. The Soviets are flight-testing an improved version of the SS-20 which is expected to be more accurate than its predecessor.
Shorter Range Missiles
Current Systems and Force Levels. In 1985, a brigade in the Belorussian Military District became the first operational unit to receive the SS-23 shorter range INF missile. The SS-23, with its 500-kilometer range, represents a marked improvement in range and accuracy over the 300-kilometer SS-1/SCUD B surface-to-surface missile it is now beginning to replace. If the SS-23 follows the same sequence of deployment seen with the SCUD B, the Western Military Districts will receive it first, followed by deployment to the Group of Soviet Forces, Germany.

Each front commander also may have a brigade of 12 to 18 SCALEBOARD missiles available that are more accurate than the older missiles they replaced. Over 70 SCALEBOARD launchers are opposite European NATO and 40 are opposite the Sino-Soviet border. There is a battalion opposite southwest Asia/eastern Turkey, and one brigade is maintained in strategic reserve. Because of their greatly increased accuracy, the new short-range missiles can also be employed effectively with nonnuclear warheads.

In 1984, the Soviets forward-deployed the SCALEBOARD short-range ballistic missile to Eastern Europe. These front-level weapons, which normally accompany Soviet combined arms formations, are now in position to strike deep into Western Europe.
Sea-Based Forces

The Soviets also maintain and operate 13 GOLF II-Class ballistic missile submarines equipped with 3 SS-N-5 SLBMs each. Six GOLF Its are based in the Baltic, where they pose a threat to most of Europe, while the remaining seven patrol the Sea of Japan, where they can be employed against targets in the Far East.
Short-Range Nuclear Forces

Current Systems and Force Levels. Soviet armies and fronts have missile brigades equipped with 12 to 18 SS-1C SCUD SRBMs. Over 500 SCUD launchers are located opposite European NATO, and over 100 are opposite the Sino-Soviet border and in the Far East. Additionally, about 75 are opposite southwest Asia and eastern Turkey, with one brigade held in strategic reserve.

The Soviet division commander has a variety of nuclear assets available to him. The most predominant such system at division level is the unguided free rocket over ground (FROG), which is deployed in a battalion of four launchers. The Soviets are replacing FROGs with the more accurate, longer range SS-21s in some divisions opposite NATO. There are now 500 FROG and SS-21 launchers opposite NATO. Another 215 FROG launchers are opposite the Sino-Soviet border and in the Far East; about 100 are opposite southwest Asia and eastern Turkey; and about 75 are in strategic reserve.

Front commanders also have available nuclear-capable artillery tubes. Three new self-propelled, nuclear-capable artillery pieces are being added to the inventory: a 152-mm gun, a 203-mm self-propelled gun, and a 240-mm self-propelled mortar. When fully deployed, the total number of these new nuclear-capable artillery tubes plus older 152-mm howitzers that are also capable of firing nuclear rounds will exceed 10,000.

Force Developments. As in all other nuclear attack forces, the Soviets probably will continue to seek ways to improve the capabilities of their tactical missiles and nuclear artillery. These improvements will be accomplished through incremental modernization of existing systems as well as through the introduction of entirely new systems.

The Soviets probably will continue to seek improvements for their short-range ballistic missile force. Advancements in warhead capabilities, accuracy, and reliability are expected. Combined arms commanders would then have enhanced non-nuclear targeting options and more flexible and survivable SRBMs. These systems will be capable of delivering nuclear, chemical, or conventional warheads closer to the forward edge of the battle area and at greater depths within the military theater of operations.
US Non-Strategic Nuclear Forces
Longer Range Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces

The initial deployment of Pershing IIs and ground-launched cruise missiles (GLCMs) began in Europe in late 1983. According to the agreed schedule, the number of US LRINF missiles deployed in Europe on 31 December 1985 totaled 236 missiles on 140 launchers.These consist of 108 Pershing II missiles on 108 launchers and 128 GLCMs on 32 launchers. The deployment of US Pershing II and ground-launched cruise missiles responds to the Soviet LRINF missile threat to NATO.
Shorter Range Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces

With the removal of US Pershing Is and the Soviet SS-23s replacing SCUDs in Europe, the Soviet Union will maintain its substantial numerical superiority in shorter range nonstrategic nuclear missiles while improving the qualitative characteristics of its forces. The USSR also has a significant numerical advantage in SRINF aircraft and is reducing the qualitative advantage NATO has enjoyed. This is occurring despite NATO's SRINF aircraft modernization program, in which older aircraft are being replaced by the F-16 and Tornado.
Short-Range Nuclear Forces

Short-range nuclear forces (SNF) consist of tube artillery and missiles of much shorter range than INF. The United States' SNF is made up of Lance tactical missiles and nuclear artillery. Although SNF artillery traditionally has been an area of NATO advantage, the balance has shifted dramatically in favor of the Soviets in recent years. The Soviets also have achieved parity in overall numbers of SNF missiles.

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Soviet Military Power 1984 - Theater Forces

Over the past two decades, Soviet forces for theater warfare have been steadily expanded and upgraded in every category of weapons systems. Soviet ground force divisions have been enlarged and equipped with the most modern tanks, artillery and helicopters. Soviet naval forces continue to receive larger and more lethal ships and submarines. Soviet air forces are being modernized with high-performance aircraft while theater missile forces receive more accurate systems with greater range and throwweight. In addition to these force enhancements, Soviet military planners adapt tactics to the capability of new systems and changing political objectives.

The Soviets envision as many as three main theaters for the Eurasian land mass: Western, Southern and Far Eastern, each with a set of political objectives affecting military operations within the theater. More importantly in planning for such military operations the Soviets divide a theater, for operational-command and strategic planning purposes, into theaters of military operations (TVDs). Soviet planning for the Western theater, encompassing all of Europe, envisions three continental TVDs - Northwestern, Western and Southwestern - and two maritime, Arctic and Atlantic. This organizational concept enables military planners to formulate military strategy and tactics to achieve political objectives in the geographic region, taking into consideration the capabilities of the missiles, aircraft,ships and ground forces at their disposal. The same planning process occurs for Soviet objectives in the Southern and Far Eastern Theaters.

In the Western TVD, Soviet war aims would be to defeat NATO and occupy Western Europe before it could be reinforced. The Soviets plan for a very rapid, combined arms operation to reach the Atlantic in the shortest time possible. Soviet ground formations hope to achieve a rate of advance of up to 100 kilometers per day. Formations that met stiff resistance would be rapidly reinforced by sec.and echelon forces. The Soviets plan to employ Operational Maneuver Groups (OMGs)in sharp thrusts to destroy enemy forces in depth.

Soviet ground formations are provided with attack helicopters for close air support to maintain rapid momentum. Additionally, transport helicopters and aircraft are provided to inject airmobile and air-assault units rapidly from 50 to 100 kilometers ahead of a main attack to disrupt the enemy, seize key terrain and to support operations by OMGs. Soviet special purpose forces, SPETSNAZ, would be employed throughout Western Europe for reconnaissance, to disrupt communications, destroy bridges, seize choke points and direct attacking aircraft to prime targets. Soviet air, missile and naval forces would all be employed in support of these operations.

The Soviets recognize the importance of nuclear weapons, which can have a direct influence on the course and outcome of a war. They also recognize that the war aims can only be achieved by the combined operations of all forces in a systematic fashion controlled by a centralized strategic command authority. Planning is constantly revised to reflect shifting political objectives as well as the introduction of more capable weapons systems.

In considering the possibility that a conventional conflict in Europe might escalate, the Soviets have developed extensive plans either to preempt a NATO nuclear strike by launching a massive attack, or to launch a massive first strike against prime NATO targets. Soviet ballistic missiles, rockets, nuclear-capable aircraft and artillery could all be employed in a massed strike against a set of targets beginning at the battle line and extending to the depth of the theater. Soviet ground forces have been trained and equipment developed for sustained operations in a nuclear environment. Even after a nuclear exchange, the Soviets expect they could continue their rapid combined arms offensive against NATO.
Soviet Missiles

With the initial deployment of the SS-20 LRINF missile in 1977, the Soviets launched a concerted effort to modernize and expand their intermediate-range nuclear force. Each SS-20 carries three MIRVed warheads, thereby providing a significant force expansion factor. To date, 378 SS-20s have been deployed, of which some 243 are opposite NATO. The mobility of the SS-20 system enables both on and off-road operation. As a result, the survivability of the SS-20 is greatly enhanced because detecting and targeting them is difficult when they are field deployed. Further, the SS-20 launcher has the capability of being reloaded and refired; the Soviets stockpile refire missiles. The SS-20s also have very significant increases in accuracy and reaction time over the older SS-4s and SS-5s.

Force expansion is continuing, and the number of deployed SS-20 launchers could increase by at least 50 percent by the late 1980s. In addition to the SS-20 force, the Soviets still maintain some 224 SS-4 LRINF missiles. All of these older missiles are located in the western USSR opposite NATO. By the end of 1983, all SS-5 LRINF missiles were being retired.

Soviet theater nuclear capability has undergone other significant improvements, evident from the increased numbers, types, sophistication, accuracy and yields of tactical missiles including the SS-21, SS-22 and SS-23.The SS-21 is a division-level system that is replacing the older FROG-7. It has a range of about 120 kilometers compared to the FROG 7's range of about 70 kilometers, and is more accurate and reliable, thus enabling greater targeting flexibility and deeper strikes.

The SCUD, normally deployed in brigades at army and front level, is expected to be replaced by the SS-23, a tactical surface-to-surface missile with improved accuracy and a range of 500 kilometers, versus the SCUD's 300 kilometers.

The SS-12/SCALEBOARD missile, with a range of about 900 kilometers, is expected to be replaced by the SS-22 of similar range but greater accuracy.

Even with the introduction of these new systems, Soviet efforts to develop newer and more accurate and reliable missiles continue. The Soviets are likely to improve the SS-20. They already have in advanced testing, and nearing deployment, ground-, air- and sea-launched long-range cruise missiles. There is evidence they are developing a new Short Range Ballistic Missile, possibly for deployment later this decade or in the early 1990s.

In addition to the land-based theater missile forces, the Soviets still maintain and operate 13 GOLF II and two HOTEL II-Class ballistic missile submarines. Each submarine is equipped with three SS-N-5 SLBMs. Six GOLF II units are based in the Baltic where they continue to pose an effective threat to most of Europe, while the remaining seven submarines patrol the Sea of Japan where they could be employed against targets in the Far East.
US Non-Strategic Forces

In contrast to the Soviet modernization and build-up of its non-strategic nuclear force posture in Europe, the United States and its NATO Allies have exercised restraint.

In October 1983, NATO decided to withdraw 1,400 nuclear warheads from Europe. This decision will bring to 2,400 the total number of warheads to be removed from Europe since 1979. The earlier withdrawal of 1,000 warheads was mandated when NATO made its 1979 dual-track decision to modernize longer range intermediate-range nuclear forces and to pursue arms control negotiations with the Soviet Union. Moreover, the current reduction will reduce NATO's nuclear stockpile to the lowest level in over 20 years and will not be affected by deployment of new LRINF missiles, because one warhead will be removed for each PERSHING II missile or ground-launched cruise missile (GLCM) warhead deployed.

The initial deployment of PERSHING II and ground-launched cruise missiles began in Europe in late 1983. Deployment will continue until 1988 when 108 PERSHING II and 464 GLCMs will be in place, unless a US-Soviet agreement that eliminates or limits the global number of LRINF missiles on both sides is concluded. The deployment of US PERSHING II and ground-launched cruise missiles responds to the Soviet LRINF missile threat to Europe.

As the US PERSHING IIs replace the shorter-range PERSHING Is, and Soviet SS-23s replace the SCUDs in Europe, the Soviet Union will at least maintain its substantial numerical superiority in shorter-range nonstrategic nuclear missiles while improving the qualitative characteristics of its forces. The USSR also possesses a significant numerical advantage in INF aircraft and is reducing the qualitative advantage NATO has enjoyed, despite NATO's INF aircraft modernization program, which consists of the replacement of older aircraft with the F-16 and TORNADO.

Short-range nuclear forces (SNF) consist of tube artillery and missiles of much shorter range than INF missiles. The balance in SNF artillery, traditionally an area of NATO advantage, also has shifted dramatically in favor of the Soviets in recent years. The Soviets have achieved parity in overall numbers of SNF and continue to have a substantial advantage in the category of short-range missiles, giving them more flexibility in the employment of SNF.
Soviet Tactical Air Defense Missiles

The air defense of the Soviet forces has grown from earlier generation antiaircraft gun defenses to the modern antiaircraft guns and surface-to-air missile systems of today. Since each unit must be able to defend itself, air defense is the responsibility of all levels of command.

Soviet doctrine for air defense calls for the denial of the airspace over and adjacent to the battle area. To satisfy this requirement, the Soviets have developed a mixture of weapons that achieve coverage from the surface to very high altitudes. Current tactical air defense systems and their echelon assignments are:
SYSTEM ECHELON
SA-7a AND 7b Company/Battalion
SA-14
SA-9 Regiment
SA-13
ZSU-23-4
SA-6a and 6b Division
SA-8a and 8b
SA-11
SA-4a and 4b Front/Army

In their modernization program, the Soviets are seeking to improve surveillance, identification, target tracking, fire control, firepower and the ability to operate in all environments. This effort involves advances in such areas as radars, electro-optics, laser/directed energy technology and Identification Friend or Foe(IFF} systems.

The Soviets are also developing an advanced tactical air defense system, SA-X-12, to augment or replace the SA-4 in SAM brigades at the front level. This system is capable of engaging high-performance aircraft and short range ballistic missiles like the US LANCE. It may also be used to attempt to intercept longer-range INF missiles. This system, like some other systems assigned to Soviet theater forces, could be used for territorial defense.
US Tactical Air Defense Systems

US and Allied tactical air defenses include several new weapons. The STINGER, with improved infrared-seeker guidance systems, a man-portable, surface-to-air missile system developed to replace the REDEYE. Two new systems, PATRIOT and the SGT YORK Division Air Defense Gun, will increase the Army's air defense capabilities against a variety of aircraft approaching at varying altitudes. PATRIOT will replace NIKE-HERCULES and the Improved HAWK as the principal theater-level SAM for defense against aircraft at high or medium altitudes and will be deployed in Europe beginning in 1984. The ISGT YORK will give the Army a longer-range, all-weather, higher kill-probability weapon to protect armored and mechanized units. Beginning in 1985, the SGT YORK will replace the VULCAN gun system.
Soviet Air Forces

The reorganization of the command and control structure for Soviet air assets, which began in the late 1970s, is the most significant event in the last two decades in the development of Soviet air power. It occurred as part of the general reorganization of Soviet military forces and is a result of the new emphasis on TVDs as the basic level of military operations in a future war.

The reorganization resulted in a streamlined organization due to the merger of strategic and tactical air and air defense assets in most land border areas of the USSR. The air defense (APVO) interceptor regiments in these areas were resubordinated from PVOStrany to the Soviet Air Forces. They became part of a new structure, the "Air Forces of the Military District," which also includes most of the assets of the former tactical air armies. The Air Forces of an MD include all air assets in their geographic area (excluding Strategic Aviation and transport assets). These assets can be used either offensively or defensively, as the situation requires. The new structure improves defensive capabilities, but its most significant impact is on the capability to conduct massed offensive air operations in the various TVDs. The Soviets have probably been striving toward such a structure since the 1960s, and technological advances in weapon systems and in command, control and communications have finally made its implementation possible.

The Soviet Air Forces are currently adapting to their new organizational structure and to new weapon systems. Over the next few years, they will be settling more firmly into the reorganized structure and streamlining command and control links. There will be continued experimentation in tactics and training at all levels, as new roles and missions are more clearly defined.

Tactical Aviation: As a result of the reorganization, Soviet Air Forces of the Military Districts (MDs) now provide tactical air support to frontal operations. The missions assigned to the Air Forces of the MDs have remained essentially the same as those formerly performed by the Tactical Air Armies, but incorporate the introduction of more modern and capable aircraft and reflect changes in pilot training.

In addition to the increased emphasis on the achievement of air superiority in any future war, and on the importance of air power in general, the Soviets have increased their experimentation with new tactics over the last 5 years. They are developing training for a variety of new missions, including fighter escort, ECM escort, maneuvering air combat, independent search missions and air accompaniment of ground forces. They have increased the percentage of "dissimilar" intercept training, and the number of multi-event training sorties.

As the new training becomes more widespread, it will greatly improve Soviet capabilities to perform air missions under a variety of conditions. Many of the new missions place a much greater demand on pilot initiative and independence than was previously the case in the Soviet Air Forces. The training not only increases capabilities, it will also maximize the effective use of the new Soviet fighters, allowing Soviet pilots to take better advantage of the increased range, weapons and maneuvering capabilities of these aircraft.

Their new fighter aircraft, the MiG-29/ FULCRUM and the Su-27/FLANKER, are supersonic, all-weather counter-air fighters with look-down/shoot-down weapon systems and beyond-visual-range air-to-air missiles. These aircraft may have a secondary ground Su-27/FLANKER, bottom, and MiG-29/FULCRUM aircraft attack role. The FULCRUM in particular may have a true dual-role capability similar to that of the US F-16 and F-18.

Soviet air forces in the Western TVD have by far the highest percentage of modern aircraft - over 90 percent of their inventory - because the Soviets perceive that this TVD faces the strongest enemy and the most dense and complicated target array. The air assets in this region number about 2,850 aircraft and include every operational Soviet airframe except the FOXHOUND. Capabilities in this area are believed to be very good and constantly improving.
US Tactical Air Forces

US tactical air forces retain a qualitative advantage over those of the Soviet Union in aircraft and weapons, and, more importantly, in personnel and training. Air combat in the Middle East demonstrated the lethality of US built air-to-air missiles. US Air Force and Navy air crews receive about twice as much flying time as do their Soviet counterparts, and US training exercises are considered superior to those of the Soviets. Non-US NATO countries generally provide about as much flying time for their air crews as do the Soviets.

Air support to the Southwestern TVD is generally comparable to the Western TVD. There are fewer aircraft in this area, however, because it faces a numerically smaller NATO force. Soviet air forces in this region total some 1,250 aircraft.

The Northwestern TVD has a very small number of air assets, reflecting less emphasis on air support in this region. It has few long range aircraft; there are no FENCERs in this region, although some could be allocated from other areas. The Soviets continue to modernize their Air Forces in the Far East with late model FLOGGER and FENCER aircraft. Currently, 1,800 aircraft, over 90 percent of which are third-generation, are in position for operations against China and Japan. The Soviets also have about 170 long- and medium-range bombers in the Far East. Of this number, some 40 BACKFIRE bombers are assigned to the Soviet Air Forces in the region.

The US and NATO Allies have also been carrying out a force modernization program over the last 5 years. The United States has recently added the A-10, the F-15 and the F-16 aircraft. The NATO Allies are also adding F-16 and TORNADO aircraft, and both the United States and NATO are adding the E-3A AWACS.

The high-performance F-14 fighter, designed for fleet air defense and air-to-air combat, is operating on more than 80 percent of the Navy's aircraft carriers with additional procurement planned. The F/A-18, which will replace the F-4 and A-7 in the Navy and Marine Corps, can accomplish both air-to-air fighter and air-to-ground attack missions. The Marine Corps' AV-8B HARRIER is scheduled to be operational by 1985, and six active light attack squadrons will have received this new version by FY 1988. To keep pace with the anticipated threat, both the F-15 and F-16 aircraft are receiving radar modifications to enhance air-to-air target detection ranges and will also be modified to carry advanced medium range air-to-air missiles. Production of F15s and F-16s will continue into the 1990s.
Soviet Ground Forces

Out of a total of 194 active tank, motorized rifle and airborne divisions in the Soviet force, 65 are located in the western USSR, 30 in Eastern Europe and an additional 20 in the Transcaucasus and North Caucasus Military Districts (MDs). All these divisions would likely be committed to offensive operations against NATO. In addition to these forces, 17 low-strength divisions, centrally located in the USSR, constitute the Strategic Reserves. For operation in the Southern Theater the Soviets have in place six divisions in the Turkestan MD and four engaged in combat operations in Afghanistan. These forces would be reinforced by the 20 divisions from the Caucasus MDs if they were not engaged against NATO. Soviet forces for operations in the Far East are composed of 52 tank and motorized rifle divisions. The six Warsaw Pact Allies of the Soviet Union have a total of 55active divisions, which, collectively with Soviet divisions, amount to 249 combat divisions. Many of these divisions, most notably those in the interior of the USSR, are at low stages of readiness.

The Soviets also maintain 17 mobilization bases, predominantly in the western USSR, that could form additional combat divisions. These bases usually contain the combat equipment needed to form new divisions and would require augmentation in manpower and a substantial amount of training before they could be committed to combat operations.

While technological improvements to hardware continue throughout the Soviet force, priority is given to the forces opposite NATO, giving them the capability to conduct rapid offensive operations, characterized by shock action, massive firepower and high mobility. Surface-to-air, surface-to-surface missiles, air and air defense assets have already been discussed. Additionally, the Soviets continue to modernize and expand ground equipment such as tanks, artillery and helicopters.

Tanks: The Soviet tank force has been undergoing a major upgrade since the mid 1960s, when the first truly modern post-World War II tank, the T-64, was introduced. The first model of the T-64 was followed by at least one improved version, the T-64A, and several variants of the T-72. The most modern Soviet tank, the T-80, featuring nuclear, biological, and chemical protection and entranced firepower and survivability, is in proportion of these modern tanks, as part of the total Soviet inventory opposite NATO, has occurred. The impact on the most critical area - the one opposite the NATO center - is particularly significant. In this area, T-64, T-72, T-80 tanks comprise about 50 percent of the total. Over 1,400 T-80 tanks have been deployed opposite NATO.

Artillery: The Soviets are pursuing a comprehensive program of upgrading and expanding the artillery fire support available to ground forces. Several new artillery pieces, some of which are nuclear-capable, and new multiple rocket launchers have been introduced in the past few years. Simultaneously, an ongoing divisional reorganization has resulted in increases in the towed and self-propelled artillery assets. The addition of an artillery battalion to tank regiments is intended to make tank and motorized rifle divisions fully capable combined arms forces.

Several developments illustrate Soviet technological improvements to the artillery force. Two new 152-mm guns, one self-propelled and one towed, have been fielded since 1978, and both are deployed with Soviet forces in Eastern Europe. They are nuclear-capable and replace pieces that were not.

As an additional complement to surface-to-surface missiles, the Soviets are continuing deployment of nuclear-capable heavy artillery brigades armed with mobile 240-mm self-propelled mortars and the 203-mm self-propelled guns. Deployment of the 203-mm gun outside the USSR in 1982, coupled with the appearance of the new 152-mm guns in the same year, indicates the importance Soviet doctrine places on capability to deliver low-yield nuclear strikes relatively close to Soviet forces.

A 220-mm multiple rocket launcher has been deployed opposite NATO since 1978. Each mobile launcher has 16 tubes and can fire chemical as well as conventional high explosive munitions.

Helicopters: Soviet helicopter forces are receiving priority attention with continuing upgrades in numbers, units and technology. Divisional helicopter assets continue to increase in number and, overall, the rotary wing force continues to figure prominently in Soviet doctrine and tactics. All major training exercises routinely feature large numbers of helicopters integrated into all facets of combined arms operations. Soviet helicopter forces continue to lead new advances in doctrinal developments, such as airmobile assault forces, and provide major support to other forces, such as the Operational Maneuver Groups. Tactically, they continue to provide significant combat power to Soviet forces operating in Afghanistan.

Soviet combat helicopters are among the most heavily armed in the world - the Mi-24/HIND E and MI-8/HIP E attack helicopters and the MI-8/HIP C and Mi-17/HIP H assault helicopters offer Soviet commanders a considerable degree of flexibility in the application of intense firepower. The Soviets are testing operational concepts in Afghanistan, modifying tactics as the war proceeds. These lessons, while not directly applicable to a European war, would add to Soviet effectiveness in general conflict.

The Soviets continue to develop new systems designed to take advantage of increasingly sophisticated technology. New, more agile, powerful helicopters, such as the HAVOC, with improved armament and significantly improved performance and survivability will ensure the Soviets field a combat effective helicopter force in the late 1980s and early 1990s.
US Ground Forces

US military strategy does not call for matching the size of the Soviet ground forces,but instead emphasizes refining the US qualitative edge in conjunction with moderate force increases.

The US Army and Marine Corps are developing organizational changes to improve combat effectiveness. The Army is undertaking a program entitled "Army 90" to implement its Air Land Battle doctrine. This doctrine has been developed to synchronize the close in battle against enemy lead forces with a longer-range battle against enemy follow-on forces. Army light and heavy divisions are being rearmed and restructured for sustained,continuous combat operations at any level of conflict. The Army is seeking to increase the strategic mobility of its light divisions while capitalizing on systems to increase overall firepower and combat effectiveness.

The Marine Corps is restructuring infantry battalions to increase firepower and tactical mobility. Introduction of more advanced weapons will improve combat capabilities. A 25-percent increase in DRAGON antitank missile teams in each battalion and an additional TOW antitank missile platoon in each regiment will improve antiarmor capabilities.

The present generation of antiarmor weapons includes the long-range TOW, medium range DRAGON and light antitank short-range missiles. Improved warheads and guidance systems will increase the TOW's ability to penetrate new Soviet armor.

By the end of the decade, the Army is scheduled to have over 1,500 attack helicopters, two-thirds of which will be the AH-1 COBRATOW. The Army's AH-64 APACHE helicopter, which entered production in 1982, is an advanced, quick-reaction, antitank weapon. It is armed with 16 HELLFIRE antiarmor missiles, a 30-mm automatic gun, and 2.75 inch rockets.

The M1 ABRAMS main battle tank has been deployed in Army field units since 1981. The M1 provides US forces with improved mobility, survivability and antiarmor firepower. The Army plans to replace the M1 main gun with the German-designed 120-mm main gun system, which would be interoperable with the German LEOPARD II tank gun.

The Multiple-Launch Rocket System (MLRS), a cooperative program with the Federal Republic of Germany, France, Italy and the United Kingdom, was fielded with US forces in 1983. It is designed to give NATO ground forces enhanced firepower to suppress enemy artillery and introduces a new capability to interdict enemy operations beyond normal artillery range.

The BRADLEY Fighting Vehicle, introduced in 1981, is modernizing Army mechanized forces. These vehicles are armed with 25-mm automatic cannons, 7.62-mm coaxial machine guns, and TOW antitank weapons. They give mechanized infantry a true mounted combat capability. Introduction of a new Light Armored Vehicle will provide the Marine Corps units with increased mobility and firepower.
Soviet Naval Forces

The Soviet Navy maintains a world naval presence. The Navy is composed of four fleets - Northern, Baltic, Black, and Pacific - and the Caspian Sea Flotilla. Each of the four fleets has submarine, surface, air, naval infantry (marines) and coastal defense components as well as large ashore support, training and administrative organizations. In all, there are over 467,000 personnel in the Soviet Navy, about 186,000 of whom are aboard ship.

The years 1967-1968 were watershed years for the Soviet Navy; the Soviets introduced lead units of their second generation missile equipped submarines and surface ships. It was also the period when they began in earnest to deploy combat forces away from home waters. Since then, the Soviet Navy has developed into a globally deployed force composed of an impressive array of ships, submarines and aircraft, including the nuclear-powered guided missile cruiser KIROV.

In the past year, there have been significant developments in ship construction programs and deployment activities. In the construction area, two new classes of nuclear-powered attack submarines were launched - MIKE and SIERRA. Two other classes - the nuclear powered high-speed ALFA-Class and the diesel-powered TANGO - may have completed their production runs and their follow-on classes are expected to appear soon. The Soviets have begun construction of a large aircraft carrier, with an estimated displacement of some 60,000 tons.

The newer submarine classes introduced in the 1980s, as well as the 1979 VICTOR III SSN, have improved technologies and capabilities. They are generally larger in size and have a greater weapons capacity. Prior to 1978, the Soviets emphasized the construction of ballistic missile submarines. Since then, however, production emphasis has shifted, and about 75 percent are now torpedo or cruise missile attack submarines. During the next 10 years, while there may be a slight decline in the total number of attack submarines, there will be a significant growth in the number of nuclear-powered units.

The MIKE-Class, at over 9,700 tons displacement, and the SIERRA-Class, at about 8,000 tons, are indicative of the trend toward increasing the size of Soviet submarines. The SIERRA is about 20 percent larger than its immediate predecessor, the VICTOR III, which was introduced only 4 years earlier.

The Soviets are continuing to build high technology submarines that have pressure hulls made of titanium. This development enables Soviet submarines to operate at great depths in addition to being more survivable as a result of greater hull strength.

Important force developments also have included the activation of the second unit of the OSCAR-Class nuclear-powered cruise missile submarine; the beginning of sea trials of the second KIROV-Class nuclear-powered guided missile cruiser; the addition of five other attack submarines; six major surface combatants; 46 fighter-bombers; over 40 helicopters, mostly ASW versions; and one long-range ASW BEAR F. Late in 1983, the third unit of the KIEV-Class carriers and the second unit of the IVAN ROGOV-Class amphibious assault ships departed for the Pacific Fleet via the Indian Ocean. Earlier, the SLAVA-Class cruiser - provisionally identified last year as the KRASINA-Class - made her maiden voyage out of area from the Black Sea to the Northern Fleet and back again.

The aircraft carrier being built at Nikolayev Ion the Black Sea is assessed to be nuclear powered, and it is expected to have a full length flight deck. Because it is likely that this ship is being designed to carry conventional take off and landing aircraft, instead of the KIEV's vertical take off and landing type, it will probably be fitted with arresting gear and steam catapults like those on US aircraft carriers. This ship and her new aircraft will begin tests before the end of the decade.

The new class of Soviet carriers will help to eliminate deficiencies in two areas. The first is air defense of their naval forces beyond the ranges of land-based fighter aircraft. Secondly, the Soviets have an active interest in improving their distant area power projection capabilities to become more influential in the Third World. To achieve this goal, they need to be able to provide air protection for naval forces as well as to protect and assist ground forces operating ashore. Thus it is expected that the aircraft on the new carrier will have both air-to-air and ground capabilities.

At Cam Ranh Bay, Vietnam and in the Dahlak Archipelago off Ethiopia in the southern Red Sea, the Soviets have achieved significant gains in access to important naval support facilities. The most critical operational developments have taken place at Cam Ranh Bay where the Soviets have upgraded and increased the size of their forces. In 1982, the Soviets had about 15 warships and auxiliaries operating in the South China Sea. Since early 1983, the number has ranged from 20 to 25 ships. Naval long-range BEAR D reconnaissance and BEAR F antisubmarine warfare(ASW) aircraft continue to operate in the area. In late 1983, the Soviets began to augment this capability, and thus far, about 10 strike, tanker, and electronic combat variants of the medium-range Tu-16 BADGER have deployed to Cam Ranh Bay.

During the past year, the Soviets have become more heavily entrenched at Dahlak. The Soviet Navy apparently has now achieved exclusive use of the island, and Ethiopian nationals rarely visit. In addition, the Soviets have begun to improve the island's defenses with antiaircraft weapons and a contingent of their naval infantry.

Remote facilities provide the Soviets immediate access to the vital sea lanes that link the natural resources of these regions to the industries of the United States and its Allies.

In the fall of 1983, the Soviets conducted their first world-wide naval exercise since 1975. The exercise was unique in at least two respects. First, while the exercise did emphasize traditional homeland protection, with anticarrier and antisubmarine activities, there was also a focus on anti-sea lines of communication and convoy operations in ocean areas including the South China Sea and the Indian Ocean. The Soviets even augmented their Indian Ocean deployed submarine forces with units that had been operating off Vietnam. The exercise clearly demonstrated the military availability of Soviet civilian maritime assets, when a large number of merchant and fishing fleet ships were integrated into naval operations, either as part of convoys or simulating enemy forces.

The Soviet Navy has continued to focus developmental efforts on incorporating increasing levels of advanced technology and sophistication into all their ships. They continue to build even larger ships with equally heightened levels of lethality in their weapons systems and greater endurance to facilitate deployments to all seas and oceans.
US Naval Forces

Measured by numbers of ships, the United States and its Allies maintain a favorable balance of maritime power. The United States and its NATO Allies maintain about 1,500 ships, compared to a Warsaw Pact force of about 1,400. The United States and its Allies hold a significant lead in ships of over 1,000 tons displacement.

This aggregate comparison reflects several areas of Western advantage. For example, the West has an advantage in carrier air power, an advantage expected to grow during the 1980s as the United States builds its force from the current level of 13 carriers to 15 by the end of the decade. Upgrading and recommissioning of the battleship NEW JERSEY and sister ships of the IOWA-Class are adding significant firepower to the US fleet. The United States maintains a superior amphibious assault force, with about four times the tonnage of its Soviet counterpart. The United States and its Allies also have an important advantage in underway replenishment ships and other naval support forces, enabling Western forces to operate in distant waters with more endurance and self sufficiency.

Qualitatively, Western maritime forces have an important edge in antisubmarine warfare. Today, the United States also maintains qualitative superiority in its submarine forces, especially in sound quieting and detection capabilities.

The Soviet Navy has been a leader for many years in the development and deployment of naval antiship cruise missiles. The United States is now upgrading its own units through large-scale deployments of HARPOON and TOMAHAWK cruise missiles.

The United States and its Allies are pursuing several programs designed to strengthen NATO collective maritime defense capabilities. To improve antisubmarine warfare forces, the United States is continuing construction of the highly capable LOS ANGELES-Class attack submarine, with production rates gradually being accelerated. The delivery of 34 new FFG-7 frigates since 1977 has added significantly to the ASW capabilities of US surface forces. New towed-array sonar systems now being deployed aboard increasing numbers of US surface warships, coupled with the ongoing introduction of new LAMPSMK III helicopters, will also substantially enhance the long-range ASW attack capabilities of US surface combatants. The United States is also modernizing its force of land-based, long-range P-3 maritime patrol aircraft in order to improve fine capability to locate and destroy enemy submarines in forward areas and barriers before they come within range of Allied naval forces and convoys. Improved torpedoes and ASW rockets now in production or under development will provide improvements needed to counter Soviet submarines that are faster, dive deeper, and have reduced acoustic target strength.

The United States is steadily improving its capability for anti-air warfare with construction of additional CG-47 Aegis guided missile cruisers and planned introduction of a new class of guided missile destroyers in the latter half of the decade. In addition, significant modernization is ongoing for existing guided missile cruisers and current carrier based AEW aircraft and is planned for the F-14 force. Finally, strong self-air-defense capabilities are being provided to all maritime forces, commensurate with the threat they could face.
Special Purpose Forces (SPETSNAZ)

The USSR maintains a complement of special purpose forces, known by the Soviet acronym SPETSNAZ. These special purpose forces are controlled by the Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU) of the Soviet General Staff and are trained to conduct a variety of sensitive missions, including covert action abroad. This latter mission was illustrated by their covert role, under KGB direction, in the December 1979 assassination of Afghan President Hafizullah Amin, which was performed by a joint KGB/SPETSNAZ force.

During peacetime the GRU carefully coordinates reconnaissance programs that are geared to meet the intelligence requirements for Soviet forces in war. In wartime, SPETSNAZ forces would operate far behind enemy lines for extended periods of time. They would conduct sabotage, reconnaissance and attacks on a wide variety of military and political targets.

The KGB is assessed to have responsibility, under Central Committee guidance, for operational planning, coordination and political control of special purpose forces that operate abroad in peacetime. This was the case in the Soviet invasion of Czechoslovakia in 1968, and of Afghanistan in 1979. The KGB maintains its own special operations capabilities in the form of clandestine assets dedicated to assassination and wartime espionage.

Wartime missions of GRU special purpose troops are planned under the direction of the General Staff and are integral to the Soviet combined arms operations. Intended to support theater as well as front or fleet-level operations, SPETSNAZ forces are capable of operating throughout the enemy homeland.

Organized into brigades, these forces will infiltrate and fight as small teams. In a war, each of these brigades can be expected to field approximately 100 SPETSNAZ teams. A typical team would be composed of an officer as leader with a warrant officer or senior sergeant as second in command. Other members of the group are trained as radio operators and weapons and demolition experts. In addition to the normal military training, all are trained in:

-infiltration tactics

- sabotage methods using explosives, incendiaries, acids, and abrasives.

- parachute training,

-clandestine communications

- hand-to-hand combat and silent killing techniques.

- language/customs of target country.

- survival behind enemy lines and

- reconnaissance and target location.

To make training as realistic as possible, SPETSNAZ brigades have facilities equipped with accurate full-scale models of key targets such as enemy installations and weapon systems. The brigades intended for operations against NATO share similar demolition training and equipment familiarization. Training facilities are equipped with mockups of NATO nuclear systems including Pershing, Lance, and GLCM, as well as airfields, nuclear storage sites, and communications facilities. The missions of SPETSNAZ make a significant addition to Soviet combat forces.

In both peace and war, these SPETSNAZ forces represent an important threat. In peacetime, they are a formidable instrument with which the Soviets can project limited, but decisive, force abroad, especially into the Third World. In war, major facilities and important weapons systems are the object of their attacks.
US Special Operations Forces

US special operations forces are valuable elements available to field commanders. The potential benefits of such forces justify the high priority given to the revitalization of their capabilities. Special operations forces are particularly well qualified to counter threats to US interests that result from low-intensity conflict. In this regard, special operations forces have accounted for one-quarter of the mobile training teams deployed in support of US security assistance programs since 1979.

Special operations forces are also capable of direct action in response to crises for which the use of other US forces might be inappropriate. Such crises might include threats of hostile acts against US citizens or facilities abroad by terrorists, dissidents, foreign governments or other sources. Special operations forces are especially useful in resolving crises and terminating conflicts that are still at relatively low levels of violence and to which the nations involved have not made major resource commitments.

Special operations forces must also be capable of supporting conventional forces in the event of large-scale Soviet aggression against the United States and its Allies. To this end special operations forces can provide invaluable intelligence to conventional field commanders and may conduct psychological, civil affairs and unconventional warfare operations. Unconventional warfare missions would include the interrelated fields of guerrilla warfare, direct action and evasion and escape operations.

Accelerated action is under way to improve special operations capabilities to meet national and theater requirements in peace, crisis and war.

Soviet Chemical Warfare
The Soviet Union has the world's largest, best equipped and best trained military force for waging chemical warfare. The extensive modernization and growth of the Armed Forces include a dynamic and viable program to strengthen the USSR's chemical warfare capabilities. The Soviet Union continues to test, produce and stockpile chemical weapons. Moreover, the Soviets have developed the doctrine, plans, personnel and equipment to support their use of chemical weapons. They believe that the user of chemical weapons would gain a significant military advantage in a conventional conflict. Their continued testing of chemical weapons, the enlarged storage capacity of chemical agents and weapons and the existence of active production facilities are among the indicators of a serious chemical weapons program. These indications and strong evidence of the actual use of chemical and toxin weapons by the Soviet Union and its client forces in Afghanistan, Laos and Kampuchea reflect their drive to strengthen and improve their capability to wage chemical warfare and their willingness to employ such weapons in battlefield situations. Soviet research and development of military useful chemical warfare agents covers a wide range of applications. New chemical agents and combinations of agents, including ways to render the protective masks and filtration systems of potential enemies ineffective, are being investigated. One group of agents, known as mycotoxins, has been identified in the laboratory from samples collected in Afghanistan.

Almost all Soviet conventional land, sea and air weapon systems, from mortars to long-range tactical missiles, are capable of firing chemical ammunition or warheads. The Soviets have developed the data required to use these chemical weapons in battle situations, which includes the types and numbers of weapons required to attack various targets under a variety of weather and combat conditions. Currently they are exploring and testing systems with larger payload, increased range, and better accuracy for greater target flexibility and a deeper strike capability. They have developed two types of chemical weapons for their tactical missiles, bulk agents for a single large warhead and bomblets that can be dispersed over the target.

In accordance with their doctrine, once release authority has been granted for employment of chemical weapons, the appropriate commander may be ordered to conduct strikes against any or all identified targets. He may use persistent agents or non-persistent agents as well as a variety of delivery systems, and will know the level of contamination to place on the target. Should his own forces have to cross a contaminated area, the filtration system on all combat vehicles will help allow his troops to continue to maneuver and fight, and he will have specially trained troops available for consultation, reconnaissance and decontamination.

The Shikhany Chemical Warfare Proving Ground is one of the primary Soviet chemical weapons test areas. Since the late 1920s, it has grown in size and sophistication and today is an expanding and highly active chemical weapons testing facility. Since the late 1970s,the Soviets have constructed several new chemical weapon test facilities and further construction continues. At these facilities, sampling devices used to determine the efficiency of chemical weapons are arranged in grids that have a circular or rectangular pattern. These distinctive grids measure the agent concentration and how well it was dispersed. The shape of the grid and complexity of its pattern depend on the kind of weapon - bomb, artillery or rocket - and the type of agent being tested.

Chemical agents produced over the past five decades believed to be are stored in a network of military depots located across the Soviet Union. These depots are believed to contain agents in bulk containers and agent-filled munitions, as well as gas masks, protective suits, decontamination solutions and decontamination vehicles. The depots are highly secure military installations, and many have rail lines allowing for the rapid mobilization of chemical warfare materials. The amount of agents, weapons and material in storage at these depots has increased significantly since the late 1960s.

The Soviets have more than 80,000 officers and enlisted specialists trained in chemical warfare, a force that will double in wartime.They have about 30,000 special vehicles for reconnaissance and decontamination. The Soviets have established chemical military academies and more than 200 sites for teaching and training Soviet troops on how to protect and decontaminate themselves following combat. The chemical troops are responsible for the development, testing and evaluation of new chemical agents, weapon systems, antidotes, suits, gas masks, protective and decontaminating systems. In addition, they are responsible for the production and storage of chemical weapons and also serve as advisers to commanders for chemical weapons and the tactics for their use.
US Chemical Weapons

The United States is actively working in the multilateral Conference on Disarmament for a complete and verifiable ban on the development, production, stockpiling, possession, transfer and use of chemical weapons. Even in the absence of such a ban, the United States will never initiate the use of chemical weapons in a conflict. But we must maintain a credible deterrent against chemical attack that includes both protective and retaliatory capabilities. To do so, we must redress the - severe imbalances that have developed as a consequence of long-term US restraint and continued Soviet expansion and modernization in the chemical weapons area.

The United States has not produced any chemical weapons for 15 years, and most of our chemical munitions could no longer be delivered effectively on the battlefield. The most critical deficiency is the lack of a capability to target enemy forces effectively with chemical agents beyond artillery range. Further, our chemical weapon and agent production facilities have deteriorated and are unusable without extensive renovation or replacement.

To have an effective deterrent, the United States need not, and will not attempt to, match the Soviets in quantities and types of chemical weapons. Instead, our aim is to have the smallest, safest stockpile that would convince the USSR it could gain no significant military advantage from the use of chemical weapons against us or our Allies. Even with their formidable protective capabilities, Soviet forces would face severe difficulties in sustaining combat operations if they faced counterattack with chemicals. We are improving the utility of our current stockpile through maintenance, planning and training. However, these activities cannot redress the most critical stockpile deficiencies, and, thus, we are also seeking to reestablish a capability to produce chemical weapons, and to overcome these critical stockpile deficiencies by acquiring an effective deep-strike chemical weapon and a modern artillery projectile.

In addition, US forces must be able to defend against chemical attack. We have recently made considerable progress in this regard. Chemical-related training has increased in all services. Individual protective equipment is available to Army, Air Force and Marine units, and the Navy is in the process of equipping its personnel. Additionally, new ship construction programs will include degrees of collective protective systems to improve staying power in a chemical warfare environment. We have also fielded improved detection equipment. Nevertheless, US chemical protective capability still needs improvement in such areas as protective clothing, collective protection systems, detection, warning and monitoring devices, decontamination equipment and agents and the ability to treat casualties in a chemical warfare environment. We have research and development programs in all these areas. Despite the necessity for improved defenses against chemical attack, we must also recognize that the effectiveness of troops is significantly diminished if they are required to operate in a chemical protective posture. Deterrence of chemical attack remain
Soviet Biological Warfare

The Soviet Union has an active R&D program to investigate and evaluate the utility of biological weapons and their impact on the combat environment. The Soviet effort in biological warfare violates the Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention of 1972, which was ratified by the USSR. The convention bans the research, development, production and possession of biological agents and toxins for warfare purposes.

There are at least seven biological warfare centers in the USSR that have the highest security and are under the strictest military control. One of these is located in the city of Sverdlovsk. In the spring of 1979, an accidental release of an anthrax agent occurred there, either as a result of a leakage in a containment system or an explosion. A large quantity of anthrax traveled at least four kilometers downwind from the facility and caused a significant number of casualties and deaths. More than 3,000 Soviet citizens may have been infected. As a result of the accident, large sections of Sverdlovsk were placed under quarantine and military control. Strenuous efforts were made by Soviet doctors to treat victims, and a large-scale effort to decontaminate the area was undertaken. The Soviet Government has claimed that the anthrax problem was caused by the illegal sale of contaminated meat on the black market. The evidence indicates instead that the victims suffered from pulmonary anthrax caused by the inhalation of an anthrax agent, which could only have escaped from the military facility.

Soviet research efforts in the area of genetic engineering may also have, a connection with their biological warfare program. There is an apparent effort on the part of the Soviets to transfer selected aspects of genetic engineering research to their biological warfare centers. For biological warfare purposes, genetic engineering could open a large number of possibilities. Normally harmless, non-disease producing organisms could be modified to become highly toxic or produce diseases for which an opponent has no known treatment or cure. Other agents, now considered too unstable for storage or biological warfare applications, could be changed sufficiently to be an effective agent.

In Soviet doctrine, the biological weapon is seen as a strategic weapon for the spread of infectious disease. Many of the Soviet long- and intermediate-range missile systems are technically capable of disseminating large quantities of disease agents over large areas.

The United States, in contrast, not only ratified the Biological and Toxic Weapons Convention of 1972, but also continues to adhere fully to that ban.

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